Weather predictions for december 2025 and january
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Executive summary
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and reporting summarize the 2025–26 winter outlook as favoring above‑normal temperatures across much of the U.S. East, Southeast, Gulf Coast, Texas, Southwest and California, with La Niña expected to influence winter conditions through February 2026 [1] [2]. Long‑range forecasters and seasonal products diverge on snow and regional details: some models and private forecasters show expanded January snowfall into the northwest U.S., upper Midwest and southeastern Canada while others (Old Farmer’s Almanac/Severe Weather Europe coverage) expect a milder, drier winter with pocketed heavier snow in southern mountains and variable regional outcomes [3] [4] [5].
1. NOAA’s baseline: a La Niña winter with warmer South, cooler northern pockets
NOAA’s official winter outlook (December–February) predicts a La Niña influence with above‑normal temperatures favored across the East Coast, Southeast, Gulf Coast, Texas, the Southwest and California, and below‑normal probabilities across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Northern/Central Plains and some Pacific Northwest areas, explicitly tying these patterns to a slowly developing La Niña [1]. National reporting summarized that NOAA expects cooler than average conditions in the North and warmer than average conditions in the South and notes an increased precipitation signal for parts of the West and northern Plains consistent with La Niña impacts [2].
2. How that translates to December 2025 and January 2026 for the U.S. — general themes
Taken together, the official outlook and long‑range services imply a December and January with: milder than average conditions across much of the southern half of the country, variable or colder episodes in northern and central regions, and regionally enhanced precipitation (especially along the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and parts of the Great Lakes) — but these are probabilistic, seasonal tendencies rather than day‑by‑day forecasts [1] [2].
3. Snowfall and the “split” story: north vs. south and timing expectations
Long‑range snowfall guidance from model ensembles and forecaster summaries points to more January snowfall spreading from far western Canada into the northwestern U.S., the upper Midwest and southeastern Canada, while other regions — notably parts of the lower Midwest and some northeastern areas — may see below‑normal snow under a La Niña pattern [3]. The Old Farmer’s Almanac and related coverage forecast a mostly milder and drier winter overall with “pockets” of heavy snow, particularly in southern mountain zones and certain holiday windows (late December and late January), illustrating disagreement about where and how much snow will fall [4] [5].
4. What long‑range seasonal products can and cannot tell you
Seasonal outlooks—NOAA’s CPC maps, Almanac/Old Farmer’s Almanac products and private analysis—are probability maps for months, not deterministic daily forecasts. They indicate greater odds of warmer or cooler conditions and wetter or drier regions; they do not predict specific dates for storms or exact snowfall amounts. Several sources explicitly note differing methodologies (multi‑model CPC ensembles versus historical/statistical/almanac approaches) and therefore differing regional messages [1] [4] [6].
5. Regional illustrative examples and available local guidance
If you need place‑specific guidance, many long‑range pages publish monthly summaries: travel and holiday forecasts for Christmas week (The Almanac) suggest a “variety” of winter conditions across North America and advise checking short‑term forecasts before travel [7]. Private monthly pages for cities (Houston, New York, Des Moines, Ottawa, Los Angeles, etc.) provide historical averages and model‑based monthly outlooks but rely on different data sources and should be checked alongside official CPC guidance closer to travel dates [8] [9] [10] [11] [12].
6. Conflicting signals and how to reconcile them
Sources disagree in emphasis: NOAA focuses on ocean‑atmosphere drivers and probabilistic regional tendencies [1], Severe Weather Europe highlights model projections of expanded January snowfall in the northwest and upper Midwest [3], while almanac products forecast milder, drier conditions with localized heavy snow [4]. The practical reconciliation is: expect season‑scale tendencies from NOAA as the baseline, watch ensemble snowfall projections for regional shifts [3], and rely on short‑range operational forecasts for travel and safety decisions as dates approach [7].
7. What this means for planners and travelers
Plan for a generally milder winter across much of the U.S. South and East, but keep contingency plans for cold snaps and localized heavy snow in northern and mountain regions; check updated CPC maps and local forecasts in the two weeks before travel or critical outdoor events because seasonal outlooks do not replace short‑term forecasting [1] [2] [7].
Limitations: available sources provide seasonal and monthly‑scale outlooks and regional examples but do not supply deterministic day‑by‑day forecasts for December 2025 or January 2026; consult operational local forecasts when the dates draw near [1] [7].