How have global plastic recycling rates changed from 2015 to 2025 and what drove those trends?
Executive summary
Global plastic recycling has remained extremely low from 2015 through 2025: multiple recent analyses put the global recycling share at roughly 9% (under 10%) in the early‑ to mid‑2020s, with some studies finding little improvement since 2015 (for example, a 9–9.5% recycling share in 2022 and reports of “stagnant” under‑10% rates) [1] [2] [3]. Wider material‑use reporting also shows recycled content in the global economy falling to 6.9% of materials flows, a 2.2 percentage‑point drop since 2015, highlighting that recycled input has not kept pace with the growth in virgin production [4].
1. The headline: recycling stuck below 10% — what the data say
Independent, peer‑reviewed and media summaries converge: detailed 2022 sector analysis and follow‑up reporting conclude that only about 9–9.5% of plastic was recycled and that the global share of recycled inputs into the economy remains small and flat [1] [2] [3]. The Circle Economy’s materials accounting finds recycled materials as a share of total materials used dropped to 6.9% in 2024, a 2.2 point decline since 2015 — a broad signal that recycled content in supply chains is being outpaced by new material use [4].
2. Regional variation: pockets of progress, big inequalities
Progress is uneven. Europe has set ambitious collection and recycling targets (for example, bottle‑collection targets and packaging recycling goals) and reports higher recycling for some packaging streams, while the United States and some regions have much lower rates — OECD/OECD‑derived figures show US plastic recycling as low as ~4.5–5% historically, and the new global analysis cites about 5% reuse in the US [5] [6] [1]. Informal recovery systems in lower‑income countries recover substantial fractions of waste but are often undercounted in formal statistics [7] [1].
3. Why the headline number barely moved: supply, economics and policy drivers
Multiple drivers explain stagnation. First, virgin plastics remain cheaper and more widely available because petrochemical feedstocks from oil and gas dominate production, making recycled input economically unattractive [7] [3]. Second, growth in total plastic production has outpaced increases in collection and recycling infrastructure, so even where recycling capacities expand they absorb a smaller share of the growing stream [8] [4]. Third, trade and supply‑chain complexity — including past export flows to China and changing flows after policy shifts — and the limits of formal data collection mean reported recycling can lag actual recovery or misrepresent where waste ends up [6] [9].
4. Shifts in disposal pathways: landfill down, incineration up — implications for recycling
Reports document a shift from landfill toward incineration: landfill use has declined while incineration rose to roughly one‑third of plastic waste in recent years, according to the 2022 sector analysis and media summaries; that shift reduces the pool of material available for recycling and reflects policy and infrastructure choices in regions like the EU, China and Japan [1] [3]. The policy choice to build energy‑from‑waste facilities can thus lock in non‑circular outcomes in the short term [1] [3].
5. Measurement, definitions and the ‘stagnant’ narrative — caveats
Available sources note measurement challenges that complicate year‑to‑year comparisons. Studies use different denominators (mass of plastic produced, waste generated, or recycled input), and informal recovery and national reporting gaps mean global figures could under‑ or over‑state actual reuse in places [1] [7] [9]. Some projections and modelling exercises show that strong policy interventions (reduction targets, a 55% recycling target by 2030) could dramatically raise packaging recycling by mid‑century — but those are scenario outcomes, not observed trends [8].
6. What’s driving policy and industry responses in 2025
The sluggish global recycling share has prompted policy target‑setting and corporate commitments: the EU and some member states have specific bottle collection and recycled‑content mandates, and international analyses and NGOs are pressing for extended producer responsibility, investment in collection, and redesign for recyclability [6] [10]. Industry and market reports also forecast market growth for recycling technologies and services, but they frame that growth against a baseline where recycled volumes remain a small fraction of total plastics use [11] [10].
7. Bottom line and what to watch next
Current reporting through 2024–2025 shows global plastic recycling stuck at under 10% with recycled input to the global economy failing to keep pace with virgin production [1] [4]. The trajectory can change only if three linked levers move together — steep reductions in virgin production/consumption, stronger collection and processing infrastructure especially in lower‑income regions, and economic incentives (taxes, mandates or subsidies) to make recycled plastic competitive with virgin — scenarios demonstrated in modelling but not yet realized in observed data [8] [7]. Available sources do not mention precise 2025 year‑end global percentage beyond the under‑10% reporting and scenario projections cited [1] [2].