What's going on with global warming
Executive summary
Global warming is not an abstract future risk but an accelerating, measurable reality: the past three years rank among the hottest on record and scientists warn 2026 is likely to be one of the four warmest years ever, driven by rising greenhouse gases and unprecedented ocean heat content [1] [2] [3]. Emissions grew in 2025, reversing prior declines in some countries, even as clean-energy deployment expands globally and geopolitical competition—especially China’s push into clean technologies—reshapes the contest over who leads the low-carbon transition [4] [5] [6].
1. What the data say about recent warming
Multiple monitoring groups place 2023–2025 in the top three warmest years on record and report that global average temperatures have jumped, with several datasets putting recent years above 1.4°C relative to pre‑industrial baselines and the World Meteorological Organization and others warning that 2026 will almost certainly be among the hottest years observed [1] [7] [2]. Ocean heat content has set new records for nine consecutive years, amplifying heat storage and long-term climate impacts even when surface temperatures fluctuate with El Niño/La Niña cycles [3].
2. Why temperatures are climbing — human drivers and short-term modifiers
The long-term engine is clear: rising atmospheric greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil and gas are trapping more heat, and climate models and observational syntheses show this is the dominant cause of the warming trend [8] [9]. Superimposed on that trend are natural climate modes—La Niña temporarily cools, El Niño warms—and volcanic or aerosol effects that modulate year-to-year extremes, which explains why some forecasts expect 2026 to be similar to or slightly cooler than 2025 while others project continued record warmth if El Niño returns [10] [7].
3. Impacts already visible and why they matter
The warming signal is already producing cascading impacts: intensifying heat waves, surging ocean heat that damages marine ecosystems, record-low Arctic sea ice seasons and regional extremes including megafires and severe storms that impose large economic and human costs, with scientists warning these events are a “warning shot” of a shifting, more dangerous climate [1] [11] [4]. Long-lived effects such as rising sea level and weakened glacier buffering capacity threaten coastal populations and freshwater supplies, with UN and scientific assessments noting that current national commitments are far short of what’s needed to avoid breaching critical Paris Agreement thresholds [9] [3].
4. Politics, policy and the global balance of progress and backsliding
Policy trajectories are mixed: while many countries and markets are accelerating clean‑energy deployment, the U.S. saw regulatory and legislative moves that may increase domestic emissions and 2025 experienced an emissions uptick, underscoring how politics can blunt progress even as other nations—most notably China—invest heavily in clean technologies and seek strategic advantage [5] [4] [6]. This dynamic creates a patchwork of ambition: global technological momentum coexists with policy backsliding in key emitters, a tension that will determine whether temperatures can be constrained this decade [5] [9].
5. Uncertainties, contested narratives and what to watch next
Short-term projections vary—some groups expect 2026 similar to 2025 or slightly cooler due to La Niña while others warn of near‑record warmth if El Niño returns—so near-term rankings are uncertain, but the multi‑decadal trend is unambiguous and driven by human emissions [10] [7] [12]. Watch three things closely: global CO2 emissions trajectories and national policy shifts that could lock in higher emissions (or cut them), the state of the Pacific (El Niño/La Niña) that will modulate year-to-year temperature peaks, and geopolitical moves—such as China’s clean‑tech expansion—that will shape which economies profit from and accelerate the energy transition [4] [7] [6]. Reporting and political statements occasionally downplay the science for partisan ends—readers should note the agendas of both advocacy outlets and political actors when evaluating claims about short‑term weather being inconsistent with long‑term warming [13] [5].