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Warming trends
Executive summary
Global surface temperatures are running near record highs, with a high probability that at least one year between 2025–2029 will exceed 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels and the 2025–2029 five‑year average likely near or above that threshold (WMO) [1]. Longer‑term outlooks from UNEP and Climate Action Tracker put century‑scale warming under current pledges at roughly 2.3–2.5°C and under current policies as high as ~2.8°C–3.1°C, meaning the world remains on a pathway well above Paris goals unless mitigation accelerates [2] [3] [4].
1. Warming now and in the next five years — “records or near‑records are very likely”
Global climate agencies project that the next five years (2025–2029) are likely to remain at or near record temperature levels, with an 86% chance that at least one year in that window will be more than 1.5°C above 1850–1900 and a 70% chance the five‑year average will exceed 1.5°C, and annual forecasts for 2025–2029 put each year between about 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 baseline (World Meteorological Organization) [1]. These short‑term probabilities reflect natural variability (for example El Niño/La Niña swings) superimposed on an upward trend from greenhouse gases [1].
2. Arctic amplification and regional extremes — where warming is fastest
The Arctic is warming far faster than the globe: over the next five extended winters the Arctic average is projected to be about 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 baseline — more than three and a half times the global average — driving large sea‑ice losses and ecosystem shifts that amplify global impacts (WMO; UN News) [1] [5]. That regional amplification feeds into global risk: ice loss exposes darker surfaces, raises heat absorption and accelerates feedbacks that influence weather patterns and long‑term sea‑level rise [6].
3. Near‑term emissions trajectory — pledges help but don’t close the gap
The UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2025 finds that new national pledges slightly improved projections but still leave the world heading for about 2.3–2.5°C of warming this century if countries meet those pledges; under current policies warming would be closer to ~2.8°C [2] [3]. UNEP also notes that some of the apparent improvement comes from methodological changes and that recent policy moves (for example the U.S. withdrawal from Paris at the time of the report) can undo gains — underlining that declared targets alone are insufficient without implementation [2].
4. Century‑scale projections and the limits of “1.5°C” rhetoric
Multiple analyses show that staying at or returning to 1.5°C requires rapid, sustained mitigation and likely large‑scale carbon removal; scientists and analysts warn that 1.5°C is “virtually exhausted” in remaining carbon budget terms and that temporary overshoots would demand uncertain, costly removal efforts to reverse (AAAS summary cited in Wikipedia; UNEP) [7] [2]. Climate Action Tracker and others stress that current trends place the world well above the ambition of the Paris Agreement unless policy and technology deployment accelerate dramatically [4].
5. Observed acceleration — faster warming and mounting impacts
Recent research and syntheses presented at COP30 and in scientific reports indicate the pace of warming has increased: one study and follow‑on assessments find the average global warming rate is about 0.27°C per decade — roughly 50% faster than rates in the 1990s/2000s — and heat‑related impacts such as wildfires, coral bleaching and heat mortality are already intensifying (Reuters; Yale Climate Connections; Carbon Brief) [6] [8] [9]. NOAA and other monitoring show extensive coral bleaching and record‑high heat stress on marine ecosystems in 2023–2025, underscoring visible impacts this decade [7] [9].
6. Where the uncertainty lies — short vs. long term, and policy execution
Uncertainty is not about whether warming continues but about how fast in the short term and how high by 2100 under different policy paths. Short‑term year‑to‑year chances of exceeding 1.5°C are high, but long‑term assessments use multi‑decadal averages to judge Paris targets; thus a temporary exceedance is treated differently than a sustained long‑term overshoot (WRI; WMO) [1] [10]. Crucially, modeled pathways depend on whether countries actually implement pledged policies and whether carbon removal technologies scale — both elements the UNEP report highlights as decisive and uncertain [2] [3].
7. What to watch next — indicators that will matter
Key near‑term indicators to monitor are global annual temperatures and the 5‑year mean relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, global fossil CO2 emissions (projected record in 2025), and rate of policy implementation versus pledge announcements; recent reporting shows fossil fuel CO2 could reach a 2025 record ~38.1 billion tonnes and emissions trends are central to warming outcomes (Global Carbon Project/NYT; UNEP) [11] [2]. Watch future UNEP Emissions Gap updates, WMO prediction bulletins, and Climate Action Tracker assessments for shifting probabilities and policy‑to‑impact translation [1] [4] [2].
Limitations: these sources are recent syntheses and assessments and emphasize probabilities and scenarios rather than precise deterministic forecasts; available sources do not mention specific local policy changes after the cited reports (not found in current reporting) [1] [2].