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Globall warming
Executive summary
Global warming is ongoing and accelerating: the last decade (2015–2024) is the warmest on record and the planet’s 2025 average surface temperature sits near record highs, putting the world on track to exceed 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels in the near term unless far stronger action is taken [1] [2]. Multiple 2025 reports find current policies and pledges still point to roughly 2.3–2.8°C of warming this century, with the 1.5°C carbon budget “virtually exhausted” — about four years of emissions at 2025 rates [3] [4] [5].
1. What the latest data show: warming, records and short‑term odds
Scientific monitoring and synthesis in 2025 show global temperatures at or near record levels: 2015–2024 are the ten warmest years on record and 2025 year‑to‑date surface temperature ranks among the highest [1]. The World Meteorological Organization and UN reporting estimate an 86% chance that at least one year between 2025–2029 will exceed 1.5°C above 1850–1900, and a high probability that five‑year averages will be at or above 1.5°C—signaling near‑term exceedance risks even if multi‑decadal averages are still the preferred scientific yardstick [2] [6].
2. Long‑term projections: pledges, policies and likely warming ranges
Major assessments released in 2025 conclude that new climate pledges have only slightly reduced projected warming: if nations meet current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), global warming this century is projected at roughly 2.3–2.5°C, while continuing current policies would yield about 2.8°C or more [3] [7]. Climate Action Tracker and UNEP analyses both warn that even with pledges, the world remains far from the Paris goals of well‑below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C [8] [3].
3. The carbon budget perspective: why 1.5°C is now so difficult
Carbon budget accounting in 2025 finds the remaining budget to keep global warming below 1.5°C is “virtually exhausted,” estimated at about 170 billion tonnes CO2 — roughly equivalent to four years of 2025 emissions at current rates [4] [5]. That narrow budget explains why short‑term exceedance of 1.5°C is increasingly likely and why limiting long‑term warming will require rapid, sustained emission cuts plus potential large‑scale removal of CO2 from the atmosphere [4] [3].
4. Observed impacts and potential tipping points
Reporting and scientific syntheses in 2025 document accelerating impacts: large‑scale coral bleaching events, record low ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica, expanding wildfire area, and permafrost thaw that raise concern about feedbacks and tipping points if warming reaches or lingers near 2°C [1] [9]. Journalistic and scientific outlets emphasize that each additional tenth of a degree amplifies extreme weather, ecosystem loss and sea level rise risks [1] [9].
5. Political and policy context: progress, gaps and contested commitments
COP30 and related coverage in late 2025 show political friction: negotiators debated finance and fossil‑fuel language while some major economies altered their level of engagement, and prominent analyses noted that methodological changes and policy shifts (including U.S. withdrawal from some agreements) offset only small amounts of projected warming — underscoring a gap between rhetoric and the emissions cuts needed [10] [3] [8]. UNEP and other organizations explicitly state that recent pledges “only slightly lowered” predicted century‑scale warming [7] [3].
6. Where reporting disagrees or is limited
Sources agree on broad trajectories (near‑record temperatures, exhausted 1.5°C budget, projected 2.3–2.8°C range), but differ in tone and emphasis: some outlets emphasize imminent catastrophic outcomes and tipping points [11] [9], while institutional reports contextualize short‑term exceedance versus long‑term averages and note that pledges have reduced projected warming by roughly a degree relative to earlier scenarios [12] [3]. Available sources do not mention certain claims sometimes circulated publicly — for example, definitive statements that 2–3°C is “unlivable” for all regions — so those stronger normative judgments are not directly documented in the provided reporting [11] [1].
7. What would change the outlook: actions that matter
Analyses point to three clear levers that would alter projections: rapid and deep near‑term cuts to emissions (especially from fossil fuels), scaling finance and adaptation for vulnerable nations, and limiting reliance on uncertain large‑scale carbon removal by reducing emissions now [3] [7]. UNEP’s modeling shows even ambitious strengthened action from 2025 could reduce overshoot and lower century‑end warming, though current pledges remain insufficient [3] [7].
8. Bottom line for readers
The consensus of 2025 reporting is stark: the planet is warmer than at any comparable period in modern records, the practical carbon budget for 1.5°C is almost gone, and current policies and pledges still point to well above 1.5°C by 2100 unless nations sharply accelerate mitigation [1] [4] [3]. Debates remain about how fast and by whom emissions cuts and financing should be implemented — debates reflected in coverage of COP30 and in national politics [10] [3].