Have emmissions peaked?
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Executive summary
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement are projected to hit record highs in 2025 — roughly 38.1 Gt CO2 in some estimates — after rising about 1.1% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2024, according to the Global Carbon Project and the IEA respectively [1] [2]. Multiple independent datasets and analysts say emissions are still rising globally but that the power sector and some regions may be nearing a peak, making a global peak possible within the next few years rather than already achieved [3] [4] [5].
1. Emissions are not clearly past their global peak — records rose again in 2024–25
Major research teams report rising fossil-fuel CO2: the IEA records a 0.8% rise to about 37.8 Gt CO2 in 2024 (an all‑time high) and attributes much of the 2024 increase to heat-driven cooling demand [2]. The Global Carbon Project and associated coverage project a further ~1.1% rise in 2025 to about 38.1 Gt CO2 — another record — which the Global Carbon Budget and press coverage present as the latest consensus [1] [6] [4].
2. Some sectors and regions are peaking even as global totals climb
Clean‑power growth is changing the electricity mix: analyses show power‑sector CO2 may be flattening or near flat in the 2025–27 outlook despite rising electricity demand, driven by rapid solar and wind deployment (IEA) and regional policy action [5] [4]. The European Union’s road‑transport emissions are projected to peak in 2025 because of recent vehicle and truck standards [7]. China’s emissions have shown signs of plateauing in 2025, with commentators saying the country may have peaked or at least is close to a peak — but that small rebounds are possible [8] [9] [4].
3. Why a global peak remains uncertain: competing drivers
Experts emphasise three opposing forces. Faster renewables and electrification — and policy pushes in places like the EU — push emissions down; but economic growth, heat-driven electricity and cooling demand, and rebounds in oil and gas consumption push them up [2] [10] [5]. The net result in 2024–25 has been an increase in fossil CO2 even as some sectors flatten, which leaves the timing of a durable global peak unresolved [2] [1].
4. Different datasets, similar headlines — but different emphases
Independent databases (Global Carbon Project, IEA, EDGAR) agree on the broad trend that fossil CO2 rose in recent years and likely sets new records around 2025; they diverge on precise tonnes and the weight of sectoral drivers [1] [2] [11]. Scientific journals and outlets frame the story as “approaching a peak” while warning that hitting a sustainable, long‑term decline depends on policy and China’s trajectory — a recurring theme in Nature and other analyses [3] [4].
5. What “peaked” would have to mean — and why it matters
A one‑year plateau or slight fall in total emissions would not solve the climate problem: scientists stress that to limit warming, emissions must peak and then decline rapidly toward net zero. Scenario work from Climate Analytics shows peaks can occur in 2025 under some assumptions, but meeting 1.5°C requires much faster cuts and sustained declines beyond a single peak year [12] [13]. UNEP’s Emissions Gap work underlines that current pledges leave the world “off target” and still headed toward higher temperatures unless reductions deepen [13].
6. The politics and incentives shaping the narratives
Industry forecasters and some consultancies have argued for an imminent peak driven by technology trends and announced policies; researchers and UN reports highlight that announced policies still fall short of what’s required and that national reporting can lag on the ground [14] [13] [11]. This produces two stories: one optimistic about a near‑term inflection as renewables scale, and one warning that record global totals in 2024–25 show policy ambition remains insufficient [14] [1] [13].
7. Bottom line for readers: "Have emissions peaked?" — Not yet, globally
Available sources show fossil‑fuel CO2 rose into record levels in 2024–25 [2] [1]. Some regions and sectors may have peaked or are close — notably parts of power and EU transport — but global totals are still rising in the latest assessments, making a sustained, verifiable global peak still an open question dependent on policy, economic trends and China’s future path [5] [7] [3].
Limitations: different groups use different methods and cutoffs (fossil CO2 alone vs. total greenhouse gases vs. inclusion of land‑use change), which explains some variation in headline numbers; available sources do not mention a single, universally accepted calendar year when a durable global peak has been confirmed.