Is earth getting warmer

1. “Is the planet warming?” — Observations say: yes

Long‑term instrumental records and syntheses find a clear upward trend: NOAA notes about a ~1°C rise in global surface temperature since the pre‑industrial era (1850–1900) and an average increase over recent decades; Copernicus and other groups reported 2024 as the first calendar year exceeding 1.5°C above pre‑industrial baseline, indicating ongoing warming in the climate system ^{[6] [3]}. Multiple monitoring groups (NASA, NOAA, Met Office/UEA, Berkeley Earth, Copernicus) place recent months and years among the hottest on record, demonstrating sustained warming rather than a short‑term blip ^{[7] [4]}.

2. Short‑term outlook: near‑term records likely to persist

The World Meteorological Organization’s five‑year forecast (2025–2029) predicts annually averaged near‑surface temperatures between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above 1850–1900, with an 86% chance that at least one year in the next five will top 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels and a 70% chance the five‑year average will exceed 1.5°C — meaning record‑high years are likely to continue in the near term ^{[1] [2]}. Carbon Brief and other analyses find 2025 on track to be the second or third warmest year and very unlikely to beat 2024, which was boosted by a strong El Niño but still fits the upward trend ^{[4] [7]}.

3. Why these short‑term spikes matter — beyond a single year

Scientists caution that one hot calendar year does not by itself redefine long‑term goals, which are measured over multi‑decadal averages; Nature Climate Change explains that a single year above 1.5°C strongly suggests we are within a 20‑year period that will likely reach that average threshold, with significant policy implications ^[3]. Moreover, the warming signal is not confined to air temperatures: ocean heat content reached record levels in 2024 and continued rising into 2025 according to WMO reports, showing the Earth is gaining heat overall and creating long‑lasting impacts ^[5].

4. Regional extremes and cryosphere signals reinforce the trend

The Arctic is warming far faster than the global mean — forecasts put Arctic winter warming at about 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 average over the next five winters, more than three‑and‑a‑half times the global rate — and sea‑ice concentrations are projected to decline further in several seas, underlining regional amplification of warming ^[1]. Independent reporting also documents record‑low Arctic sea ice and very low Antarctic sea‑ice extent earlier in 2025, and widespread coral bleaching tied to elevated ocean temperatures ^{[7] [5]}.

5. Drivers and competing explanations noted in reporting

The scientific consensus attributes the long‑term trend primarily to human emissions of greenhouse gases; UNEP’s Emissions Gap reporting shows continuing emissions increases (including a >2% rise in 2024) keep the world on a pathway likely to exceed 1.5°C within the coming decade absent rapid mitigation ^[8]. Some commentators and studies note natural variability (El Niño/La Niña, volcanic eruptions) modulates year‑to‑year temperatures — for example, 2024’s record was boosted by a strong El Niño while 2025’s ranking is affected by the event’s phase — but the trend of increasing baseline temperatures is distinct from those fluctuations ^{[4] [9]}.

6. What the projections imply for policy and risk

UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report and related UN coverage say current pledges and policies only marginally lower long‑run warming projections (median century warming still in the 2.3–2.8°C range under various scenarios), implying that near‑term high temperatures are a signal of elevated future risks unless emissions fall rapidly ^{[10] [8]}. The WMO and UN messaging frames recent years’ warmth as increasing climate risks to societies, economies and ecosystems — an argument intended to press political action at diplomatic forums such as COP30 ^{[1] [2]}.

7. Limitations, disagreements and what’s not in these sources

Available sources show strong agreement on recent warming and near‑term chances of exceeding 1.5°C in individual years, but they emphasize different metrics (single years vs. 20‑year averages) and different confidence framings; Nature Climate Change highlights the nuance that a single year above 1.5°C does not automatically mean a permanent overshoot of the Paris threshold, while WMO/UN emphasize the high probability of near‑term exceedance ^{[3] [1]}. Available sources do not mention specific country‑level attribution disputes or newly published counteranalyses claiming no recent warming, so those perspectives are not represented here (not found in current reporting).

Bottom line

The reporting and scientific assessments in these sources converge: Earth is measurably warmer than the pre‑industrial baseline, 2024–2025 rank among the warmest years on record, and forecasts show a high probability of additional near‑term temperature records and a strong chance of years exceeding the 1.5°C single‑year threshold — outcomes that raise immediate risks and sharpen the policy stakes ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}.