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Is rapid decaarbonisation happening?
Executive summary
Global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are projected to rise to a record in 2025, up about 1.1% and reaching roughly 38.1–42.2 billion tonnes depending on the dataset, while at least 35 countries show measurable progress reducing emissions even as global demand grows [1] [2] [3]. Available sources agree decarbonisation is advancing in parts of the world but not fast enough to produce a rapid global decline in emissions [4] [1].
1. Record global emissions, but pockets of progress
The Global Carbon Project’s 2025 budget projects fossil-fuel CO2 emissions rising by about 1.1% in 2025, producing a new high in annual emissions — figures cited range around 38.1 billion to 42.2 billion tonnes — driven by coal, gas and oil all contributing to the increase [2] [1] [3]. At the same time, the report highlights that at least 35 countries have plans and measurable reductions in emissions while growing their economies, demonstrating that national-scale decarbonisation pathways exist and can work [2] [1].
2. Why “rapid decarbonisation” is not happening globally
Multiple sources state the world has not begun the sustained, rapid decline in emissions required to stabilise climate outcomes: emissions rose in 2024 and are projected to rise again in 2025, meaning the global peak in fossil fuel use has not been reached and the necessary rapid global fall is absent [4] [2]. The remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C is quoted as about 170 billion tonnes of CO2 — equivalent to roughly four years at 2025 emission levels — underscoring the short runway and why current trends cannot be described as a rapid global decarbonisation [1] [5].
3. Where momentum exists: renewables, markets and technology
Reports and industry coverage point to accelerating deployment of renewables and growing policy tools: the IEA projects a large wave of renewable power capacity adding nearly 4,600 GW between 2025–2030, and carbon markets and government engagement are being highlighted at COP30 as tools accelerating transitions [6]. Industry events and magazines report advances in technologies like hydrogen, synthetic fuels and clean-energy deployments that, if scaled, could help speed decarbonisation [7] [8].
4. Structural limits and rising energy demand that slow progress
Analysts emphasise that decarbonisation gains in many countries are being outpaced by rising global energy demand; reductions in a subset of nations are insufficient to offset growth elsewhere [5] [3]. Natural carbon sinks are also variable (land and ocean uptake recovering after El Niño effects), and land-use emissions remain material, with deforestation concentrated in a few countries — factors that complicate net global progress [1] [9].
5. Competing narratives among experts and stakeholders
There is consensus among the cited sources that action exists but is inadequate: the Global Carbon Budget team warns progress is too fragile to translate into sustained global declines [3], while industry and policy groups highlight increased ambition, carbon pricing uptake and investment in clean technologies as evidence that the transition is accelerating in important ways [6] [8]. These perspectives are not mutually exclusive — both describe a landscape where localized rapid progress coexists with continued global emission growth.
6. Implications and what to watch next
Given the short remaining 1.5°C budget and record emissions, the near-term trajectory hinges on whether the deployment of renewables, expansion of carbon markets and scaling of technologies (hydrogen, synthetic fuels, CCUS where appropriate) can be markedly accelerated and matched by demand-side shifts — trends being tracked at COP30 and in IEA analyses [6] [10]. The sources suggest monitoring: (a) year-on-year global CO2 figures from the Global Carbon Project, (b) renewable capacity additions reported by the IEA, and (c) policy outcomes from international fora such as COP30 that could alter national pathways [2] [6] [10].
Limitations: available sources do not mention some country-by-country details you might expect (for example, a full list of the 35 countries) and do not provide a single unified global emissions number (reports quote both ~38.1 and ~42.2 billion tonnes), so small discrepancies in headline totals reflect different accounting choices across the cited pieces [2] [1] [3].