What proportion of U.S. municipal plastic waste is exported vs. processed domestically in 2025?
Executive summary
Available reporting shows U.S. scrap-plastic exports have fallen sharply from the 2010s and were about 903 million pounds in 2024 — roughly 0.41 million tonnes — while long‑standing estimates put U.S. municipal plastic waste generation at many millions of tonnes annually, meaning exports remain a small share of total U.S. municipal plastic waste and most waste is managed domestically [1] [2]. Exact 2025 proportions (exported vs. processed domestically) are not stated in the available sources; analysts infer exports are a single‑digit percentage of total U.S. municipal plastic waste [1] [2] [3].
1. Exports have declined but are still visible — the hard numbers we do have
Federal trade and industry reporting show recovered‑plastic exports from the U.S. dropped to 903 million pounds in 2024, down modestly from 921 million pounds the year before, a figure that Resource Recycling and U.S. Census Bureau data cite as the most recent clear export tally [1]. Statista and other trade trackers document destination shifts — Canada, Southeast Asia and others — but the most concrete export volume in the provided reporting is the 2024 export number [4] [1].
2. Domestic generation dwarfs exports — scale mismatch matters
Multiple sources put U.S. municipal plastic waste and scrap figures orders of magnitude larger than export volumes. Statista and EPA reporting note U.S. municipal plastic waste generation is in the tens of millions of tons (for example, 40 million tons of municipal plastic waste estimated for 2021 in one dataset) and EPA’s MSW overviews place plastics as a large component of household waste streams [2] [5] [6]. Comparing ~903 million pounds exported in 2024 to tens of millions of tons generated shows exports are a small fraction of total municipal plastic waste [1] [2].
3. What that fraction looks like in practice — rough, source‑based inference
Our World in Data calculated that in 2010 the U.S. exported about 5% of its plastic waste; more recent reporting and trade data suggest that export shares have fallen since China’s 2018 restrictions and other policy changes [3] [7]. Resource Recycling’s 2024 export figure combined with EPA/Statista generation totals implies exports in 2024 were likely well under single‑digit percentages of U.S. municipal plastic waste — industry stories describe the U.S. becoming a net importer of recycled plastics in 2024, reinforcing that domestic processing and landfilling remain dominant [1] [2].
4. Why exports fell: policy, market demand and destination bans
Researchers and journalists trace the decline in export volumes to China’s 2018 import ban and subsequent tightening by importing countries, plus the 2019 Basel Convention amendments that constrained trade in contaminated scrap — changes that reduced U.S. reliance on foreign markets and depressed export tonnages [7] [8] [9]. Recent reporting documents destination shifts and new barriers — for example, Malaysia’s mid‑2025 temporary ban on some U.S. imports after misdeclared containers — which further strain export flows and incentivize domestic handling [10] [9].
5. Domestic capacity gap and hidden trade-offs
Although exports are smaller than total generation, multiple sources warn the U.S. lacks capacity to recycle all its plastic domestically and that a large fraction ends up landfilled or incinerated; Statista and EPA figures show recycling rates have stagnated and landfilling remains the primary fate for most plastic [2] [5]. Industry trade articles and market reports note increasing investment and policy moves to expand domestic recycling and chemical‑processing options, but they also highlight that scale‑up is uneven and that new technologies (pyrolysis, gasification, chemical recycling) remain at pilot or early commercial stages [11] [12].
6. Competing perspectives and what to watch in 2025
Environmental NGOs emphasize that even reduced export volumes still result in problematic flows to countries with weak waste management and that detection of misdeclared shipments remains an enforcement challenge [13] [9]. The recycling industry and some manufacturers argue exports can supply feedstock to meet recycled‑content targets and that bans disrupt material markets, pushing for clearer rules and more domestic infrastructure [10] [1]. Watchlists for 2025 include: U.S. trade data updates, enforcement under Basel‑related rules, destination country import policies (e.g., Malaysia), and domestic capacity builds or policy incentives for recycling — these will change the exported vs. domestically‑processed split [9] [10] [1].
Limitations and sourcing note: available sources provide clear export volumes for recent years (notably 2024) and broad national generation estimates, but none of the provided reporting gives a single definitive 2025 percentage split of U.S. municipal plastic waste exported versus processed domestically; precise 2025 proportions are therefore not found in current reporting and must be inferred from the cited trade and generation figures [1] [2].