Why did they say Florida would have been underwater already in the 70s?
Executive summary
Many warnings in past decades that “Florida would be underwater” condensed worst‑case projections and dramatic metaphors about sea‑level rise; actual measured sea level along Florida has risen about 7 inches since 1970 and continues to accelerate, with regional projections of 10–31 inches by mid‑century under many scenarios [1] [2] [3]. Different outlets and analysts select different timeframes and scenarios — from rapid near‑term local flooding to multi‑decadal inundation of low‑lying areas — which explains why people recalled dire 1970s‑style claims that haven’t matched literal, statewide submergence yet [4] [3].
1. The origin of the “underwater in the 70s” line — shorthand for alarm, not literal prediction
Public warnings about Florida “being underwater” commonly compress scientific nuance into urgent soundbites. Media stories and advocacy pieces have framed projections about Miami and low‑lying south Florida as evidence the state is “drowning,” especially when citing analyses that map coastal exposure under high sea‑level scenarios (The Guardian, Climate Central) — phrasing that can be heard as “Florida will be underwater” even when the underlying work refers to parts of the state or long time horizons [3] [4] [5].
2. What actually happened: measured rise since 1970
Tide and satellite records show sea level at Florida’s coasts has risen appreciably but not catastrophically statewide: about seven inches since 1970 per federal data, and regional satellite altimetry indicates ~3.0 mm/year in the Southeast since the early 1990s, with acceleration noted in multiple assessments [1] [2]. Those increments already worsen nuisance and storm flooding without turning Florida into an archipelago overnight [2] [1].
3. Why rhetoric outran the numbers — scenarios, local impacts and storytelling
Scientists produce a range of scenarios. Some high‑end emissions and ice‑loss scenarios project several feet of rise by 2100, which would inundate large swaths of south Florida and greatly raise chronic flooding risk; other, more moderate scenarios give lower totals. Journalists and advocacy groups often highlight worst‑case maps (e.g., Climate Central) or focused local impacts (Miami, Everglades) to convey urgency, which reads as “Florida will be under water” in shorthand [4] [3] [5].
4. Local realities: parts of Florida are already suffering chronic flooding
Even without wholesale submergence, low‑lying communities face growing problems: saltwater intrusion into groundwater, more frequent nuisance high‑tide flooding, and higher storm surge impacts. Projections used by local planners foresee 10–17 inches by 2040 in some Southeast Florida assessments and up to ~31 inches by 2060 in certain scenarios, producing severe local consequences that fuel claims of imminent inundation [6] [3] [7].
5. Timescales matter: “soon” differs between headlines and coastal engineers
Headlines that suggest imminent statewide loss often ignore that complete inundation of the entire state is considered unlikely for centuries or longer under most mainstream projections; analyses in local papers and NOAA‑framed reporting caution that total submergence of Florida is not expected this century and could take many centuries depending on ice‑sheet behavior and emissions [7]. But shorter timescales — decades — matter for property, infrastructure and insurance because of chronic and storm‑related flooding [7] [6].
6. Competing voices — alarm, adaptation, and skeptics
Sources range from advocacy and media calls to urgent action (Guardian, Climate Central maps) to more measured pieces noting long horizons for full inundation (Palm Beach Post) and technical rebuttals that argue “not all of Florida” will disappear soon [3] [7] [8]. That spectrum creates public confusion: some emphasize immediate mitigation/adaptation costs; others stress that dramatic “underwater” claims are hyperbolic if taken as literal statewide timelines [4] [7] [8].
7. What the reporting leaves out or understates
Available sources do not mention specific 1970s‑era texts that explicitly predicted whole‑state submergence by that decade; instead, modern references point to later media analyses and maps that popularized the phrase “Florida will be permanently submerged” as shorthand for serious localized vulnerability [9] [4]. Also, while many reports quantify local property and flood‑day risks, uncertainties about ice‑sheet collapse rates and long‑term sea‑level commitments mean precise timelines for total inundation remain contested [4] [7].
Conclusion — why people remember the claim: memorable media phrasing plus maps of exposed coastal zones turned scientifically plausible but diverse sea‑level scenarios into a simple, alarming meme: “Florida will be underwater.” Measured records confirm meaningful rise (about seven inches since 1970) and projections of substantial local impacts within decades, even if literal state‑wide submergence remains a much longer‑term or scenario‑dependent outcome [1] [2] [3].