Will climate change create more hurricanes
Executive summary
Climate change is not expected to clearly produce a global increase in the total number of hurricanes; instead, the robust signal across multiple studies and agencies is for fewer or similar counts globally but stronger, wetter, and more destructive storms when they do form [1] [2]. Regional changes, more frequent rapid intensification events, slowed storm motion, and rising seas mean greater damage even if overall counts do not rise [3] [4] [5].
1. What the question really asks: “more” in what sense?
Asking whether climate change will create “more hurricanes” can mean three different things—more storms globally, more storms in a particular ocean basin or making landfall, or more high-intensity storms—and the scientific literature treats these outcomes separately, so simple yes/no answers are misleading [1] [2].
2. The global tally: models point to no increase or even a decrease
Multiple recent climate-model syntheses and expert summaries report that global tropical cyclone counts are likely to stay the same or decline under warming, though confidence is low because of model limitations and observational uncertainty [1] [2]. Long-term observational records likewise show no clear century-scale increase in global storm counts and in some analyses a decline, even while intensity signals strengthen [6] [2].
3. Regional nuance: some places may see more hurricanes or higher landfall risk
Regional projections are less uniform: studies that downscale global models or use synthetic-hurricane approaches find possible increases in U.S. Gulf and lower East Coast landfall frequency and elevated risks for particular basins, meaning local exposure may rise even if global totals do not [7] [8]. The Atlantic in recent decades has shown variability and increases in some metrics, but that trend reflects both natural variability and human influence and is not a simple global template [9].
4. Intensity, rainfall, rapid intensification and slower storms: the consistent risks
There is strong and growing evidence that climate change is already making hurricanes more intense on average, increasing the proportion of Category 4–5 storms, boosting rainfall rates by roughly 10–15% on average by late century in many models, and increasing the frequency and magnitude of rapid intensification events—changes that exacerbate damage irrespective of storm counts [10] [11] [3]. Observations and modeling also suggest storms are translating more slowly, which prolongs rainfall over locations and raises flood risks [5] [4].
5. Sea-level rise and compound impacts: why damage increases even without more storms
Sea-level rise raises baseline coastal water levels, so the same storm surge penetrates farther inland and causes larger floods; combined with stronger winds and heavier rain, this means hurricanes are becoming more damaging even if the number of storms does not rise [8] [10]. Normalizing damage by increasing coastal population and development further explains why recent decades show larger losses [1].
6. Where the evidence is uncertain and why experts disagree
Uncertainty stems from imperfect long-term records, the coarse resolution of some global models for cyclone cores, and complex competing physical effects—warmer oceans favor storm formation while changes in atmospheric stability and wind shear can suppress genesis—so different studies can reach different conclusions about frequency [1] [2]. Some high-profile analyses find century-scale frequency increases in specific basins, while others conclude no global rise; both results coexist in the peer-reviewed literature and public summaries [6] [9].
7. How to read competing narratives and who benefits from each
Scientific communicators emphasizing “more hurricanes” may be simplifying to convey increasing impacts, while those stressing “no increase in number” can understate risk because they ignore intensity, rainfall, and sea-level trends; policymakers and insurers focus on risk and damage, researchers on mechanisms and counts, and advocacy groups on impacts, producing different emphases that reflect distinct agendas [5] [9].
Bottom line
Climate change is unlikely to create a clear global rise in hurricane counts; the stronger, more robust conclusions are that hurricanes will become more intense, produce heavier rainfall, undergo more rapid intensification, and cause greater coastal flooding because of sea-level rise—so even without “more” storms on the calendar, the hurricane risk facing communities is rising [1] [11] [3].