Will coffee go extinct in the next twenty five years

1. The core scientific picture: shrinking zones and threatened wild relatives

Multiple analyses model a sharp decline in regions climatically suitable for Arabica by mid‑century; one widely cited PLOS ONE–based synthesis and reporting says roughly half the land now suitable for Arabica may be unsuitable by 2050 ^[1], and broader reporting echoes that the number of top coffee regions will fall by about 50% by 2050 ^[3]. At the same time, botanical assessments find about 60% of the world’s wild Coffea species are threatened with extinction in the wild, putting crucial genetic diversity at risk ^{[2] [4]}.

2. What "extinct" usually refers to — wild species vs. cultivated crops

Most headlines conflate two separate risks: extinction of wild Coffea species and loss of commercially viable cultivation in current regions. Sources explicitly warn that wild coffee species face high extinction risk (about 60% threatened), whereas cultivated Arabica and Robusta are described as increasingly vulnerable but not declared universally extinct in near term ^{[2] [5]}. Reports note that without breeding or intervention some wild Arabica populations could effectively disappear by mid‑century ^[6].

3. How this could affect the coffee you buy and drink

Loss of suitable land and wild genetic stock would likely raise costs, reduce yields and change flavor availability — specialty-growing zones (e.g., parts of Colombia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Indonesia) may suffer lower suitability or quality declines ^{[1] [3]}. Conservation and breeding efforts are framed as essential to "futureproof" supply chains; several sources stress that losing wild relatives would remove options to breed climate‑resilient or disease‑resistant varieties ^{[2] [7]}.

4. Evidence for adaptation and why total extinction is not the consensus

Research and industry reporting emphasize adaptation pathways — moving cultivation to higher elevationswhere feasible, agroforestry, breeding and selection, and conservation of wild relatives — that could mitigate loss ^{[1] [7]}. Several outlets note that while suitable area shrinks in many places, some cooler equatorial zones may remain viable or shift, and scientists are actively looking for varietals and strategies to preserve coffee’s future ^{[1] [8]}. Thus, "coffee will never go extinct" appears as an argument in public forums, reflecting the view that human action and plant breeding can prevent total loss of cultivated coffee ^[9].

5. Social and economic stakes: why this is more than a botanical problem

Reports document real economic consequences already: past outbreaks (coffee leaf rust) caused billions in damages and displaced workers, and projected land losses threaten millions of smallholder livelihoods — a reason many groups (industry and conservation) are funding seedlings, resilience programs and breeding work ^{[4] [10]}. The framing of a "2050 problem" is common in industry coverage because projected land and species losses coincide with social vulnerability on producer landscapes ^[10].

6. Conflicting emphases in the reporting — alarm versus nuance

Media pieces and blogs sometimes use strong language ("coffee is going extinct") that mixes wild‑species extinction, regional unsuitability, and supply risk; specialist sources distinguish these outcomes ^{[5] [2]}. For example, botanical studies focus on wild Coffea extinction risk (60% threatened) while agricultural modeling focuses on shrinking suitability for Arabica and the need for adaptation ^{[2] [1]}. Readers should treat dramatic headlines cautiously and look for whether the story means wild species loss, regional crop loss, or outright global disappearance.

7. Bottom line and what would change the projection

If global warming continues unchecked and current land‑use and conservation trends persist, expect major reductions in suitable coffee land and high rates of wild Coffea endangerment by 2050 — producing supply stress, higher prices, and narrower flavor diversity ^{[1] [2]}. However, accelerated breeding, conservation of wild relatives, agroforestry and successful adaptation policies could materially alter that trajectory — and those mitigation options are emphasized by researchers and industry groups as the route to avoid the worst outcomes ^{[6] [7]}.

Limitations: available sources do not provide a single, universally accepted probability that "all coffee" will vanish in 25 years; instead they offer linked but distinct findings about land suitability, wild‑species extinction risk, and adaptation options ^{[2] [1]}.