How does the number of prior cohabiting partners affect later divorce risk?
Executive summary
The weight of recent research shows that having lived with more romantic partners prior to marrying is associated with a higher likelihood that a later marriage will end in divorce, though researchers disagree about why and how large the effect is [1] [2]. Methodological caveats, selection factors, and differences in timing—especially whether people cohabited before engagement—moderate the association and prevent a simple causal story [3] [4] [5].
1. The basic empirical pattern: more prior cohabitors, higher divorce odds
Multiple contemporary reports and analyses find a positive association between the number of prior cohabiting partners and later marital dissolution: Institute for Family Studies researchers summarize that having a greater number of prior cohabiting partners is linked to a higher likelihood of marriages ending [1], and university reporting highlights that people who lived with more than one partner face higher odds of divorce and are less likely to ever marry [2] [6]. Epidemiological-style estimates reported in media and secondary outlets often quantify elevated odds—for example, some studies report roughly 1.3 times higher odds of divorce for any premarital cohabitation versus none—though numbers vary by cohort and model [7].
2. Timing matters: pre-engagement cohabitation concentrates risk
Scholars repeatedly flag the timing of cohabitation as a key moderator: individuals who started living together before engagement tend to report lower marital quality and greater proneness to divorce compared with those who cohabited after engagement or only after marriage, even when analyses control for education and religiosity [4] [8]. Institute for Family Studies and related summaries emphasize that couples who “slide” into cohabitation without a prior commitment are at especially high risk, suggesting that the sequence—multiple partners plus pre-engagement moves-in—compounds vulnerability [1] [9].
3. Selection and confounding: who cohabits more often?
A large strand of the literature warns that selection, not just the act of cohabiting, explains much of the association: people who are economically disadvantaged, less religious, from non-traditional family backgrounds, or who had premarital fertility are more likely both to cohabit serially and to experience marital instability, which attenuates or explains some cohabitation effects in multivariate studies [3] [5]. Classic work (Teachman) argued risk is concentrated among those with premarital partners other than the eventual spouse, not simply among those who cohabited with their future spouse, underscoring that prior relationship histories and sexual partnering pattern matter [10].
4. Competing findings and methodological debates
Not all studies converge: some work argues the cohabitation effect has diminished as cohabitation diffused through society, while other analyses contend earlier null findings were artifacts of short follow-up windows or cohort selection [9] [11]. Meta-analyses and newer cohort studies produce mixed magnitudes and time-dependent effects—lower short-term divorce but higher five-year rates in some samples—so estimations of how much prior cohabitation raises risk depend on sample, follow-up length, and which controls are included [11] [7].
5. What inference is warranted and what remains uncertain
The safest conclusion, based on the reporting and studies, is that a history of multiple cohabiting partners is reliably correlated with elevated divorce risk, and the risk is amplified when cohabitation precedes engagement; however, causality is uncertain because economic, educational, fertility, and personality selection factors explain part of the pattern [1] [4] [5]. Researchers recommend attention to relationship intentions (deciding vs. sliding) and clearer measurement of partnership histories; readers should note that some outlets synthesizing the evidence (e.g., Institute for Family Studies) have advocacy orientations that shape emphasis on commitment and sequence as policy-relevant messages [1] [3].
6. Bottom line for interpretation
Accumulating prior cohabiting partners is a red flag statistically—marriages preceded by multiple prior co-residencies are more likely to end—but it is neither a deterministic sentence nor an uncontested causal finding; understanding individual context (timing of cohabitation, socioeconomic background, and reasons for moving in) is essential to interpreting any personal risk estimate [2] [5] [8].