Which tariffs enacted in 2021–2025 drove changes in US tariff revenue?
Executive summary
New tariffs enacted or expanded in 2021–2025—most prominently the broad 2025 program of sector- and country-specific duties—are the direct driver of a sharp rise in U.S. customs revenue: analysts estimate new tariffs raised roughly $101.2 billion between January and August 2025 (Penn Wharton) and lifted FY2025 customs receipts to about $195 billion, a more than 250% increase over FY2024 (CRFB) [1] [2]. Budget-model and CBO estimates put the decade-scale conventional revenue from 2025 tariffs in the low-to-mid trillions ($2.3–3.1 trillion range depending on timing and assumptions) though dynamic (growth-adjusted) estimates reduce those totals substantially [3] [4] [5].
1. Which specific 2021–2025 tariff actions moved the revenue needle
Revenue increases in this period came less from a single statute than from a sequence of executive tariff proclamations and rate hikes in 2025 that targeted China, metals, autos, apparel and other goods and that layered on preexisting Trump-era tariffs; trackers and models attribute most of the 2025 revenue rise to those 2025 actions and to already-existing tariffs on China and steel/aluminum [6] [1] [4]. Penn Wharton reports that new tariff rate changes drove the effective U.S. tariff rate from about 2.2% in January 2025 to 10.55% by August 2025, concentrating on categories such as steel, aluminum and vehicles—sectors that produce disproportionate customs duties [1].
2. Short-term receipts: how big and how fast
Multiple trackers and budget shops show a rapid, measurable effect: from under $10 billion a month in 2024 to monthly tariff collections that exceed historical norms in 2025. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget records FY2025 customs duties of roughly $195 billion—more than 250% of FY2024 receipts—and notes $151 billion collected in the second half of FY2025 alone [2]. Penn Wharton’s tally finds $101.2 billion of new-tariff revenue from January–August 2025 before accounting for income- and payroll-tax offsets [1].
3. Medium- and long-term budget estimates: trillions, but with big caveats
Budget-modelers diverge on totals but agree tariffs could produce trillions on a conventional score and materially less once macroeconomic feedback is included. Yale’s Budget Lab estimates all 2025 tariffs to date would raise roughly $2.5–3.1 trillion on a conventional 10–11 year basis but subtracts hundreds of billions when accounting for slower growth and retaliation effects (net dynamic revenue nearer $2.0–2.2 trillion in different reports) [4] [3] [7]. CBO likewise updated projections upward during 2025 as tariffs changed frequently; its blog notes higher projected tariff revenue over the 2025–2035 period than earlier reported [5] [8].
4. Who pays and who bears the economic cost—revenue is not the whole story
Analysts emphasize that tariffs are a tax on imports whose incidence can fall on importers, domestic firms, or consumers, and that revenue comes at the cost of higher prices and slower growth. The Tax Foundation and others estimate measurable GDP and distributional costs from broad tariffs, and researchers warn dynamic effects (reduced growth, lower other-tax receipts, retaliation) will reduce net fiscal gains [9] [4]. Morgan Stanley and other commentators described tariffs in 2025 as at times functioning as a “tax on capital,” with firms absorbing some costs rather than passing all of them to consumers [10].
5. Legal and policy uncertainty clouds how much revenue will stick
A major complicating factor is legality and policy reversals: court rulings and subsequent administrative changes could force rebates or repeal of specific proclamations. Reporting notes that some tariffs face litigation and that the administration has shifted public messaging—at times calling revenue a primary aim, at other times “incidental”—which affects expectations for permanence of collections [11] [12]. CBO and others explicitly adjust projections to reflect policy reversals, exemptions and noncompliance [5] [8].
6. Competing interpretations: fiscal windfall or costly revenue source?
Pro-tariff analyses and fiscal watchdogs point to large conventional revenue gains sufficient to materially reduce projected deficits if sustained (CRFB and CBO tallies) [2] [8]. Opposing analyses emphasize the economic drag: slower GDP, negative dynamic revenue effects, and distributional harms that shrink the net fiscal benefit (Yale Budget Lab; Tax Foundation) [4] [9]. Both sides use the same data but differ in adjustments for noncompliance, excluded imports, and macroeconomic feedback [3].
Limitations and what’s not covered here: available sources document which 2025 tariff packages drove most revenue gains and give tallies and model ranges; available sources do not mention a definitive, single 2021–2024 tariff act that accounts for the 2025 surge independent of the 2025 proclamations (not found in current reporting).