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Fact check: How does the current economic growth compare to the same period in 2023?
Executive Summary
Current global growth has modestly decelerated since 2023: major forecasting institutions project growth slipping from around 3.3% in 2024 to roughly 3.2% in 2025, with downside risks from trade frictions and policy uncertainty. At the same time, national outliers—most notably the United States—show stronger recent quarterly performance, complicating a simple “weaker than 2023” narrative [1] [2] [3].
1. Why the headline numbers say “slower” — the official forecasts that matter
International macro forecasts released in late 2024 and 2025 converge on a modest slowdown versus the immediate post‑pandemic rebound period. The OECD and IMF updates show global GDP growth projections nudging down—for example, a path from about 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and lower thereafter—largely driven by higher tariffs, policy uncertainty, and weaker momentum in China, the euro area, and some emerging markets [1] [2]. These projected shifts are not a collapse but a reversion toward longer‑run trend rates, and forecasters explicitly flag risks that could make outcomes worse.
2. The U.S. exception: quarterly strength versus annual comparisons
National data complicate the global picture: the United States recorded an annualized 3.8% GDP expansion in Q2 2025, revised up and described as the strongest pace since Q3 2023, reflecting consumption and investment strength [3]. That quarterly surge means comparing “current growth” to the same period in 2023 can yield opposite impressions depending on whether one looks at quarter‑over‑quarter annualized rates, year‑over‑year growth, or calendar‑year aggregates. International forecasts factor these national divergences into a softer global average [2].
3. Where the 2023 baseline matters: rebounds, hangovers, and measurement
The arithmetic of comparison depends on the 2023 baseline. The immediate post‑pandemic years saw uneven rebounds: some economies decelerated in 2023 after stimulus‑fuelled growth, while others continued expansion. Global forecast updates in 2025 treat 2023 as a mixed reference point—some regions are growing more slowly than their 2023 pace, while others, like the U.S. in specific quarters, have outperformed. The IMF’s and OECD’s publications place emphasis on policy shifts and trade barriers as explanatory variables for the divergence from earlier projections [2] [1].
4. Divergent risks and narratives: policy uncertainty and tariffs versus cyclical rebounds
Forecasters uniformly note policy uncertainty and protectionist moves as central downside risks that could further trim growth relative to 2023, citing tariff increases and geopolitical tensions as growth headwinds [1]. Alternative readings emphasize that cyclical rebounds in investment and services can sustain above‑trend growth in select economies; the U.S. Q2 2025 revision exemplifies this countervailing force [3]. These competing narratives reflect different institutional priorities: multilateral forecasters stress systemic downside risks, while national statistics offices highlight realized strengths.
5. What the major institutions explicitly warn about
The IMF’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook frames the global outlook as “in flux” with dimmer prospects than earlier assessments, noting both lower growth projections and downside tilts to the risk distribution [2] [4]. The OECD’s September 2025 interim report similarly downgrades near‑term prospects and pinpoints policy and trade frictions as drivers of the slower trajectory relative to 2023. These institutional statements amount to a coordinated caution: growth is lower than some earlier 2023 comparisons suggested, and risks could push outcomes further below those baselines [1] [4].
6. How to interpret “current growth vs. same period in 2023” in practical terms
A precise answer requires specifying metric and geography: year‑over‑year global growth is modestly lower than some quarters of 2023, while selected countries show stronger or weaker performances depending on the measure used. Forecasters recommend focusing on seasonally adjusted, like‑for‑like comparisons and on country‑level data when evaluating the claim. Institutional updates in 2025 provide the most recent synthesis: globally slower but with important country exceptions and clear downside risks tied to tariffs and policy uncertainty [1] [2].
7. Bottom line and what to watch next
The consensus across the IMF and OECD updates is that global growth is modestly weaker relative to the recent 2023 period, but significant heterogeneity exists: the United States has posted quarters of stronger growth, while China and the euro area show weaker momentum. Monitoring quarterly national GDP releases, tariff/policy developments, and the next IMF/OECD updates will determine whether the 2025 slowdown relative to 2023 proves persistent or transitory [2] [1] [3].