Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
What are the 2025 debt-to-GDP ratios for each G7 country and how do they compare?
Executive summary
Available reporting shows 2025 debt-to-GDP ratios for G7 members vary widely, with Japan far above 200% and several other G7 economies at or above 100% while at least one (Germany or Canada, depending on measure) sits well below those peaks (e.g., Japan ~230–235% in 2025) [1] [2]. Coverage is uneven across sources: Reuters and RSM/VisualCapitalist provide IMF-based charts and estimates, national budgets and think‑tank pieces note differences between net and gross measures, and some outlets emphasise forecasts and market concerns [3] [2] [4].
1. Big picture: stark dispersion in G7 debt ratios, markets are watching
G7 debt-to-GDP ratios in 2025 form a striking spread that has caught investor attention — bond markets have been uneasy because several G7 countries now carry very high debt burdens while a few retain relatively low ratios, producing cross-country comparisons that matter for borrowing costs and policy room [3] [5]. Reuters frames this as “a pressure point for anxious markets,” showing charts and forecasts for 2025 and noting market sensitivity to countries perceived as not reducing debt [3].
2. Japan: outlier at the top — roughly 230–235% of GDP
Multiple visualisations and analysis cite Japan as the clear extreme, with government debt in 2025 around 230% of GDP (VisualCapitalist) and commentary putting the figure as high as 235% [1] [2]. Analysts note Japan’s long-standing high gross debt and the domestic structure of its creditors, which has historically blunted market reactions even as the ratio ballooned [2].
3. The U.S. and several G7 peers at or near 100% — rising concern
Reporting and forecasts indicate the United States and multiple other G7 members are at or approaching 100% debt-to-GDP in 2025, raising questions about fiscal flexibility and interest-cost vulnerability. RSM’s analysis says six G7 nations are set to exceed 100% in 2025, and Reuters places the U.S. high on the worry list in mid‑2025 after market moves tied to fiscal policy decisions [2] [3].
4. Germany and Canada: relatively lower ratios but different narratives
Germany is described by Reuters as having the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7 in some coverage, enabling more fiscal room to spend on infrastructure and defence — though Germany’s borrowing and rising yields are still under scrutiny [5]. Canada’s 2025 budget claims the country has the lowest net debt-to-GDP in the G7, a line emphasised in Ottawa’s messaging; however, commentators such as the Fraser Institute argue this net‑debt framing can be misleading because it subtracts financial assets and differs from gross‑debt comparisons [4] [6].
5. Gross vs net debt: the measurement debate matters for rankings
Sources repeatedly differentiate gross government debt and net debt (gross minus financial assets). Canada’s government highlights a lowest‑net‑debt claim [4], while critics note that using gross debt can significantly change rankings and international comparisons [6]. VisualCapitalist, Reuters and other data visualisations commonly use gross public debt figures based on IMF data, which is why headline rankings (e.g., Japan >> others) use gross measures [7] [1] [3].
6. Data provenance and limits: IMF-based visuals, forecasts and national claims
The clearest numerical snapshots in the available set come from IMF-derived charts republished by VisualCapitalist and related graphics that many outlets reference for 2025 numbers [1] [7]. Reuters and RSM provide journalistic and advisory takes that combine observed data and forecasts; national budgets (Canada) present politically framed net‑debt figures [3] [4] [2]. Available sources do not provide a single table listing every G7 country’s 2025 ratio in this packet, so exact side‑by‑side percentages for all seven cannot be reproduced verbatim from these items alone — instead the reporting highlights broad categories (Japan at ~230–235%, several at/above 100%, and at least one notably lower) [1] [2] [5].
7. What to watch next: yields, policy choices, and measure disclosure
Analysts warn higher long-term rates and fiscal choices (taxes, spending) will determine whether high ratios translate into market stress; the RSM piece stresses that without fiscal consolidation and a supportive growth backdrop, interest costs could rise [2]. Reuters and other coverage suggest markets will penalise perceived fiscal negligence, especially when governments adopt large stimulus or tax cuts without offsetting measures [3] [5].
Bottom line: available reporting consistently identifies Japan as an extreme outlier (~230–235% gross debt-to-GDP in 2025) and signals several G7 members at or above 100%, while Germany and Canada are presented as comparatively lower depending on whether gross or net debt is used; the precise 2025 percentages for every G7 country in a single, consistently measured table are not found in the current set of sources [1] [2] [4].