Which 2025 tax law provisions change the provisional income thresholds for Social Security taxation in 2026?
Executive summary
Congress did not index the provisional income thresholds that determine how much of Social Security benefits are taxable; those base amounts—$25,000 and $32,000 (and the higher secondary thresholds used to reach 50% and 85% taxability)—remain fixed unless Congress acts, so no 2025/2026 tax-law change in the provided sources alters those thresholds for 2026 (sources indicate the thresholds are unchanged and not inflation‑indexed) [1] [2]. The Social Security Administration separately announced increases to the 2026 wage base (taxable maximum rises to $184,500) and a 2.8% COLA for 2026, but those SSA changes do not, in available reporting, change the statutory provisional‑income thresholds that determine benefit taxability [3] [4].
1. The law that matters: fixed provisional‑income thresholds set in statute
The rules that determine whether Social Security benefits are taxable rely on statutory “base amounts” (commonly cited as $25,000 for single filers and $32,000 for married filing jointly) established in the 1980s and 1990s; those dollar thresholds are not indexed for inflation and therefore remain the same year to year unless Congress amends the law [1] [2]. Multiple explainers emphasize that the thresholds “were set in 1984 and 1993 and have never been adjusted for inflation,” which is why the problem of middle‑class retirees paying tax on benefits has grown [2].
2. What changed for 2026 — SSA wage base and COLA, not tax thresholds
The Social Security Administration announced a 2.8% cost‑of‑living adjustment for 2026 and an increase in the maximum amount of earnings subject to Social Security tax (the OASDI wage base) to $184,500 for 2026 (up from $176,100 in 2025) [3] [4]. Those are payroll‑tax and benefit‑adjustment figures the SSA controls; available reporting treats them separately from the income‑threshold rules that trigger taxation of benefits [4] [3].
3. Why SSA increases can still affect who pays tax on benefits
Even though the SSA’s wage base and COLA aren’t the statutory provisional‑income thresholds, SSA increases can indirectly expand the number of beneficiaries who cross the fixed thresholds because higher benefits and higher reported earnings (from larger COLAs or higher taxable wages) raise retirees’ “combined income,” the measure used to compare against the static thresholds [4] [2]. Several sources note the thresholds’ fixed nature means inflation and benefit growth pull more people into taxable bands over time [2] [1].
4. Recent tax‑law changes and public confusion: what Congress did and didn’t do
Reporting in October 2025 flagged public confusion after the 2025 tax act: some coverage and statements suggested large numbers of beneficiaries would no longer pay federal tax on benefits, but tax‑policy analysts and Thomson Reuters explain the act did not change the underlying taxability rules for Social Security benefits — the new senior deduction introduced by the act is not the same as eliminating the provisional‑income thresholds, and believing otherwise could prompt harmful planning choices [5]. Thomson Reuters explicitly warns the tax rules for Social Security benefits “remain unchanged after the 2025 Act” [5].
5. Competing viewpoints and stakes for retirees
Advocates and journalists emphasize that because the thresholds are frozen, growing numbers of retirees pay tax on at least part of their benefits; policy proponents argue Congress should index or raise the thresholds to prevent “stealth” taxation [2] [1]. Conversely, official SSA communications focus on COLA and wage‑base updates without addressing threshold reform, framing the changes as adjustments to benefits and payroll tax limits rather than changes to taxable‑benefit statutes [3] [4].
6. Bottom line and what to watch
Available sources make clear the provisional‑income thresholds themselves were not changed by 2025/2026 SSA announcements or the 2025 tax act in the cited reporting; they remain the statutory, unindexed dollar amounts that determine 2026 taxability unless and until Congress enacts a law altering them [1] [5]. Watch for any explicit congressional language in future legislation or authoritative IRS guidance that would state a change to the base amounts; current reporting distinguishes SSA wage‑base/COLA updates from the statutory tax thresholds [3] [5].