How do 2025 provincial debt-to-GDP ratios compare to their pre-COVID levels?
Executive summary
Provincial debt-to-GDP ratios in 2024/25–2025 rose from pre‑COVID (2019/20) levels in nearly every analysis, contributing to a higher combined federal‑provincial debt‑to‑GDP share that the Fraser Institute places at about 74.8% in 2024/25 (up from 65.9% in 2019/20) [1]. Fiscal monitors warn provinces face growing deficits and rising aggregate provincial deficits—TD Economics projects a provincial aggregate deficit widening to -1.4% of GDP in FY2025/26, which would keep pressure on provincial debt ratios [2].
1. Pandemic spike and the provincial trajectory
The pandemic produced an immediate jump in overall government debt, and provincial debt has been described as steadily increasing for decades; consolidated measures remained materially above pre‑pandemic levels even as federal ratios began to decline from pandemic peaks [3]. Analyses like TD Economics highlight that provincial deficits and support measures persisted into 2024/25 and are forecast to worsen into FY2025/26, implying provincial debt‑to‑GDP ratios were under upward pressure through 2025 [2].
2. How combined figures mask provincial variation
When commentators report “combined federal‑provincial” debt rising from 65.9% in 2019/20 to 74.8% in 2024/25, that is an aggregate that blends federal and provincial positions; it does not show each province’s individual pre‑ vs post‑COVID swing [1]. The Fraser Institute’s breakdown shows wide provincial differences in 2024/25 — Newfoundland & Labrador and Quebec among the heaviest combined ratios while Alberta remains low — indicating provinces moved differently from their 2019 baselines [1] [4].
3. Official fiscal outlooks: federal easing, provinces still strained
The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects the federal debt‑to‑GDP ratio will decline from pandemic highs (projecting ~41.6% in 2025/26) but remain well above its pre‑pandemic 31.2% level, underscoring that even federal correction doesn’t erase higher provincial burdens that were rising before COVID and accelerated thereafter [5] [3]. That federal improvement can mask provincial legacies: public commentary and data emphasize provinces increased their share of total net debt in recent years [4].
4. Momentum into 2025: deficits, support measures and debt servicing
TD Economics’s provincial budget season recap warns the cumulative provincial FY2024/25 deficit exceeded $20 billion and could widen to $44.9 billion in FY2025/26 (about -1.4% of GDP), while debt servicing as a share of revenue was forecast to creep higher — dynamics that would lift provincial net debt ratios versus the pre‑COVID baseline if not offset by faster GDP growth or large surpluses [2].
5. Think‑tank estimates and methodological notes
The Fraser Institute’s 2025 edition constructs combined net debt‑to‑GDP series and finds combined federal‑provincial net debt nearly doubled since 2007/08 and rose from 65.9% (2019/20) to ~74.8% (2024/25); their report includes provincial rankings and per‑capita debt figures that illustrate uneven provincial paths [1] [4]. Readers should note methodology matters: allocation of federal debt to provinces, treatment of net versus gross debt, and accounting restatements (e.g., Manitoba’s derivative liabilities) can change province‑level ratios [4].
6. Examples: Ontario and British Columbia snapshots
Provincial sources show high absolute debt levels — Ontario reported publicly‑held debt of $455.3 billion as of March 31, 2025 and publishes net debt‑to‑GDP series, but these documents do not provide a simple pre‑COVID versus 2025 percentage comparison in the excerpts provided here [6]. British Columbia reporting highlights per‑person debt increases to March 31, 2025, again signaling growth since earlier years though exact debt‑to‑GDP comparisons to 2019 are not included in the snippet [7].
7. What the available sources do not settle
Available sources do not mention a complete, consistently computed table of each province’s 2019 (pre‑COVID) debt‑to‑GDP ratio alongside their 2025 ratio in a single, comparable dataset; instead, we have combined federal‑provincial aggregates and individual provincial notes that point to higher debt loads [1] [4] [2]. For exact province‑by‑province percentage point changes since 2019, readers will need consistent net‑debt definitions and the official provincial fiscal reports or Statistics Canada series not fully reproduced in these excerpts (not found in current reporting).
8. Bottom line and competing perspectives
Empirical signals in these sources are consistent: aggregate debt metrics were higher in 2024/25–2025 than in the pre‑COVID period and provincial fiscal pressures persisted or worsened into FY2025/26 [1] [2] [3]. Policy debate splits on the remedy: some analysts emphasize urgent fiscal consolidation to curb rising debt servicing and preserve program capacity (Fraser Institute commentary), while others point to manageable current debt servicing and the role of economic growth and federal policy in easing the burden (TD Economics’ emphasis on manageable rates and contingency funds) [1] [2].