How does 2025 tariff revenue compare to 2018 peak levels and the Trump-era tariffs?
Executive summary
Fiscal year 2025 tariff receipts exploded to roughly $195 billion, more than triple FY2024 levels and far above the 2018 peak of $108.2 billion (USAFacts). Analysts estimate the new 2025 tariff program has already generated tens of billions more in calendar-year 2025 revenues (estimates range from $80–$195 billion depending on scope and timing) and could raise trillions over the coming decade on a conventional scoring basis, though projections and legal risk vary widely [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. A sharp jump from the 2018 high — how big is it?
Customs duties peaked at $108.2 billion in FY2018 under the first Trump administration; by contrast Treasury and watchdog tallies put FY2025 customs duties near $195 billion — about 80% higher than the 2018 peak and roughly three times FY2024’s $77 billion figure [1] [2]. Multiple research centers show large year‑to‑date gains in 2025 — for example, CBO reported $136 billion through July and Penn Wharton estimated $80.3 billion of new revenues from January–July before behavioral offsets — illustrating that the jump is large but depends on the measurement window and whether you count only “new” 2025 tariff revenue or all customs receipts [5] [3].
2. Comparing the “Trump-era” tariffs: 2018 vs. 2025 programs
The 2018 tariffs raised revenues and pushed monthly collections up from a few billion to roughly $7 billion per month in the pre‑2025 period; the 2025 program is a far broader, higher‑rate regime that researchers say lifted the average effective tariff from roughly 2.4% in 2024 to double‑digit levels in 2025, producing monthly receipts exceeding $25–30 billion by mid‑2025 in some trackers [6] [7] [8]. That means 2025’s program is both larger in headline rates and larger in actual cash flow than the 2018 measures [6] [8].
3. How much of 2025’s gains are “new” revenue versus shifted timing?
Analysts warn part of the calendar‑year spike reflects timing and behavioral responses: importers accelerated purchases ahead of tariff increases, some exemptions and delays reduce effective collections, and offsets to income/payroll tax bases mean each dollar of tariff receipts can shrink other revenues (CBO, JCT-style offsets). Institutions therefore report different tallies: Penn Wharton and Yale’s Budget Lab estimate billions of new revenue in 2025 (e.g., $80.3bn or ~$88bn new revenues through mid‑year), while overall Treasury totals show ~$195bn in FY2025 customs duties once all receipts are counted [3] [8] [2] [5].
4. Ten‑year outlooks diverge but are large on a conventional basis
On a conventional (static) scoring basis many groups project trillions in revenue over 10 years if the tariffs persist: Tax Foundation, Penn Wharton, CBO/TBL comparisons, and others produce conventional estimates ranging from roughly $2 trillion to over $5 trillion depending on which tariffs are modeled and how offsets are treated [9] [10] [4] [11]. Yale’s Budget Lab and CRFB put conventional 10‑ to 11‑year figures in the $2–2.8 trillion range for the 2025 actions alone, but they note dynamic effects (lower growth) and tax base offsets shrink net gains [4] [2].
5. Legal and practical caveats that could erase much revenue
Several sources emphasize acute legal risk: lower‑court rulings have already deemed many 2025 tariffs unlawful, and the Supreme Court is weighing challenges — if struck down, collected duties could be refunded and projected long‑run revenue would collapse, per CRFB and news reporting [2] [12]. Administration statements in court have complicated the narrative by arguing tariffs are regulatory rather than designed primarily to raise revenue, an argument that matters to judicial remedies [12] [13].
6. Two competing narratives: revenue bonanza vs. costly tax on consumers
Supporters point to the headline Treasury receipts and decade‑long conventional tallies as evidence tariffs can substantially reduce deficits or even fund policy promises; critics and many economists stress that tariffs are an economically distorted way to raise money, shrink GDP, raise prices for consumers, and produce penalties and retaliation — and that realized revenue will be lower once economic responses and offsets are counted [1] [14] [10] [9].
Limitations and final note: available sources document FY2018 and FY2025 customs duty totals, mid‑year tallies, and multiple 10‑year projections, but they do not provide a single agreed‑upon “apples‑to‑apples” figure that isolates just the incremental 2025 policy revenue net of timing effects, exemptions, behavioral responses and potential refunds; those precise reconciled numbers are not found in current reporting [5] [3] [8].