How much is the 2026 federal employee pay raise and which pay systems are affected?
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Executive summary
Most reporting shows the White House submitted an alternative pay plan that would raise most civilian federal base pay by 1.0% for 2026 while freezing locality pay; select federal law‑enforcement categories would receive a larger 3.8% adjustment tied to the military increase [1] [2] [3]. The Office of Personnel Management’s statutory recommendation (FEPCA) would instead have produced roughly a 3.3% across‑the‑board increase plus an average 18.88% locality adjustment — a gap that explains the controversy [4] [5].
1. White House proposal: a modest 1% for most, 3.8% for some law enforcement
The Trump administration transmitted an “alternative pay plan” for 2026 that directs a 1.0% across‑the‑board base pay increase for most civilian federal employees and freezes locality pay at 2025 levels, while directing OPM to give certain federal law‑enforcement personnel a 3.8% increase aligned with the 2026 military adjustment [1] [2] [3].
2. What pay systems the plan affects — who is in, who’s excluded
The alternative pay plan covers civilian employees paid under the General Schedule (GS) and “certain other pay systems” referenced in Title 5 — in practice that means most GS white‑collar employees and other covered statutory pay systems; the plan also directs OPM to identify which law‑enforcement categories qualify for the 3.8% increase [6] [1]. Postal pay is governed by separate collective bargaining and is not set by the federal pay plan [7].
3. The statute vs. politics: FEPCA’s recommendation would have been far larger
Under the Federal Employees Pay Comparability Act (FEPCA) formula and Federal Salary Council inputs, the statutory mechanism would have produced a roughly 3.3% base increase plus an average locality adjustment of 18.88% — a combination that would have yielded much larger raises, especially in high‑cost metro areas [5] [4]. Presidents routinely submit alternative plans by Sept. 1 to avoid triggering the formulaic increases; Congress and OPM retain levers to accept, modify or override those plans [2] [8].
4. Why unions and employee groups are pushing back
Unions and employee advocates note the 1% proposal is the smallest increase in recent years and point to rising out‑of‑pocket costs (health premiums, inflation) that will outpace a 1% raise; several unions are backing congressional measures like the FAIR Act that would deliver larger, single‑digit raises in 2026 [9] [10] [11]. The dispute is partly political: proponents of the alternative plan frame it as fiscal discipline, while unions frame it as erosion of federal pay competitiveness [2] [11].
5. Timing, implementation and what can still change
The president historically finalizes the pay decision via executive order by the end of December; OPM then issues final pay tables and payroll systems implement changes effective the first full pay period on or after January 1 [8] [6]. Congress can still act through appropriations or standalone legislation to alter the increase before the executive order is issued [12] [8].
6. Concrete numbers to watch and why locality matters
Key numbers driving the politics: the administration’s 1.0% across‑the‑board offer, a 3.8% law‑enforcement increase tied to military pay, versus FEPCA’s 3.3% base plus an average 18.88% locality adjustment that was calculated by OPM/Federal Salary Council — the locality component explains why many employees, especially in expensive metro areas, stand to lose more than the headline percentage implies if locality is frozen [2] [5] [4].
7. Limitations and open questions in current reporting
Available sources confirm the 1% proposal, the freeze on locality pay and the 3.8% law‑enforcement option, but they do not specify the final list of law‑enforcement categories that will receive the 3.8% nor the exact text of any final executive order or congressional counterproposal [1] [3]. Sources also show competing White House and OMB budget positions earlier in the year, and multiple outlets note Congress could override the plan; final implementation details remain contingent on actions in the next legislative and administrative weeks [12] [8].
Bottom line: the administration’s alternative 2026 plan is a 1% baseline increase for most civilians with locality frozen and a targeted 3.8% boost for some law‑enforcement roles; that design departs sharply from FEPCA’s formulaic recommendation and is the root of current union and congressional pushback [1] [5] [11].