How are IRMAA brackets expected to change for 2026 and beyond?
Executive summary
The 2026 IRMAA income thresholds and surcharges have already been set higher than 2025, with the first threshold at $109,000 for single filers ($218,000 for joint filers), and the government will continue to index the first four brackets to inflation while keeping the top bracket frozen through 2028; beneficiaries’ 2024 MAGI determines 2026 IRMAA because of Medicare’s two‑year lookback [1] [2] [3] [4]. Beyond 2026, bracket thresholds will generally move with CPI‑U inflation (small increases expected unless policy changes occur), surcharges can rise faster than thresholds and Social Security COLA, and precise 2027+ figures depend on future CPI‑U readings and any regulatory action [5] [3] [6].
1. What changed for 2026 and why it matters
CMS and related reporting show the initial IRMAA bracket that triggers surcharges rose to $109,000 for single filers (and $218,000 for married filing jointly) for 2026, shifting more people into higher premium categories and raising Part B standard and IRMAA‑adjusted amounts substantially for affected filers [1] [6] [4]. This matters because IRMAA is added onto the base Part B and Part D premiums and is calculated on MAGI from two years earlier, so 2024 taxable events lock in 2026 exposure — a structural feature repeatedly highlighted by CMS and analysts [4] [7].
2. How the rules determine future bracket movement
By statute and CMS practice, the first four IRMAA income thresholds are indexed annually to inflation using CPI‑U changes for the relevant periods, while the highest income tier is currently administratively frozen through 2028, meaning the top cutoff won’t expand even as other bands creep upward with inflation [3] [8]. That formula creates predictable, modest upward movement in thresholds in most years, but also guarantees that surcharges — the dollar amounts added at each bracket — can and have changed at different rates than thresholds depending on premium dynamics and regulatory adjustments [5] [1].
3. What analysts expect for 2027 and 2028 under plausible inflation scenarios
Forecasting sites and financial planners model 2027–2028 brackets by projecting CPI‑U outcomes; for example, one projection shows modest upward threshold shifts if annualized inflation through August 2027 is 0% or 3%, and produces corresponding 2028 bracket estimates under both scenarios — but these remain model outputs, not official CMS figures [9]. Multiple advisory outlets warn that because the indexing depends on CPI‑U numbers through August each year, inflation moderation would keep threshold increases small (making beneficiaries vulnerable to small portfolio gains pushing them over thresholds), whereas higher inflation would widen thresholds more [5] [3].
4. Who gains and who loses under the expected path
Beneficiaries with MAGI hovering near cutoffs are the most exposed: modest investment or RMD bumps can push them into higher surcharges because IRMAA uses sharp “cliffs” at thresholds, and advisors repeatedly recommend tax planning (Roth conversions, qualified charitable distributions) precisely because of this two‑year lookback and narrow bands [9] [10]. Conversely, if inflation spikes and thresholds rise meaningfully, some people could avoid surcharges, but surcharges themselves and base premiums have been rising faster than Social Security COLA in recent reporting, creating a net squeeze for many retirees [6] [2].
5. Policy uncertainties and hidden incentives in coverage of IRMAA
Coverage from financial advisers and IRMAA‑service providers often emphasizes planning opportunities — which reflects real planning value but also a commercial incentive to sell services or conversions — and some outlets frame threshold moves as either “good news” or “bad news” depending on their readership or product focus, so readers should weigh CMS or SSA source material most heavily [2] [3]. In addition, an administrative freeze of the top bracket until 2028 is a policy choice that affects distributional outcomes and could be reversed by future regulators or Congress, a contingency not captured in inflation‑based projections [3].
6. Bottom line and limits of current reporting
The consistent, evidence‑based takeaway is that IRMAA thresholds will continue to be indexed annually (first four brackets) so expect modest inflation‑driven increases for 2027 and 2028 unless policy changes intervene, while the top bracket remains frozen through 2028 and surcharges can rise faster than thresholds and COLA, making proactive tax and income planning important for those near cutoffs; however, exact future bracket figures cannot be known until CMS publishes them because they depend on CPI‑U calculations and possible regulatory actions [5] [3] [1].