Are beef prices higher now, than they were in 2024?

1. What the data and major outlets say: prices increased in 2025

Multiple analysts and news outlets document higher beef prices in 2025 versus 2024. Visual Capitalist calculates beef prices have risen roughly 13% since August 2024 and notes steak prices up 16% year‑over‑year, tied to very low cattle inventory and falling production in 2025 ^[1]. The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) explicitly predicts beef and veal prices will increase about 11.6% in 2025, and notes retail beef and veal were 13.9% higher in August 2025 than a year earlier ^[2]. Food & Wine and Newsweek cite Bureau of Labor Statistics and USDA figures showing retail beef and ground beef prices in mid‑2025 were notably above 2024 levels ^{[4] [3]}.

2. Why prices rose: tighter supplies, strong demand, and lower production

Reporting and USDA analysis point to a classic supply‑demand squeeze. Herd contraction and historically low cattle inventories reduced U.S. production — Visual Capitalist and ERS reference falling production and 74‑year low inventories — while consumer demand remained robust, lifting prices at farm, wholesale and retail stages ^{[1] [2]}. Food & Wine highlights a roughly 4% drop in U.S. production projected for 2025 and notes the national herd hit low levels at the start of the year ^[4]. Industry sources also cite continued tight supplies and expectations that prices across the beef complex will average at new highs in 2025 ^[5].

3. How much prices rose: retail, wholesale and farm measures

Different measures show large but varying increases. ERS commentary reports retail beef and veal prices were 13.9% higher in August 2025 than August 2024 and wholesale cutout values were about 21.1% higher year‑over‑year; farm‑level cattle prices jumped about 26.5% in the same comparison ^[2]. Newsweek and other outlets cite record retail prices for ground beef and steaks in mid‑2025 compared with mid‑2024 — ground beef averages around $6+ per pound and steaks near double‑digit per‑pound levels in 2025, higher than 2024 figures ^{[3] [4]}.

4. Short‑term drivers vs. structural factors: mixed signals on duration

Analysts point to both transient and structural contributors. Short‑term drivers include heavier carcass weights in 2024 that temporarily buffered supply but did not prevent a calendar‑year contraction, and disruptions such as reduced imports from key suppliers at times ^{[6] [7]}. Structural pressures include a multi‑year herd reduction and herd‑rebuilding lag, which many industry forecasts say will keep production down and prices elevated through 2025 and possibly into 2026 ^{[1] [5] [8]}.

5. Alternative viewpoints and policy angles

Some commentary focuses on policy levers and trade as partial remedies: proposed tariff changes, increased imports from specific countries, or administrative steps to ease shortages are being discussed in political reporting, though those measures’ effectiveness is debated ^{[9] [10]}. Reuters/industry pieces framed by trade and corporate voices warn consumers prices may climb further into 2026 if herd rebuilding remains slow ^{[10] [5]}. Available sources do not mention a definitive near‑term reversal that would bring 2025 prices back to 2024 levels (not found in current reporting).

6. Limitations, data scope, and what’s not covered

The sources use different metrics (retail BLS indexes, USDA ERS forecasts, wholesale cutout and farm prices, and journalistic price samples) that produce somewhat different percentage changes; caution is needed when comparing a point‑in‑time retail price to an annual average. Also, the compiled sources report through mid/late‑2025—available sources do not provide full annual 2025 finalized averages or compare every regional supermarket chain’s pricing ^{[2] [1] [4]}. If you need a single authoritative numeric comparison for a specific cut, month, or region, consult the USDA ERS meat price spreads or BLS CPI raw tables cited by these outlets ^{[11] [12]}.

Bottom line: the reporting and government forecasts in these sources consistently show beef prices higher in 2025 than in 2024, driven by tighter cattle supplies and strong demand, with multiple measures (retail, wholesale, farm) indicating double‑digit year‑over‑year increases in many months of 2025 ^{[2] [1] [4]}.