Fact check: How does Argentina's debt-to-GDP ratio compare to other South American countries?

1. Grabbing the Claims: What the provided sources actually assert

The supplied materials make several discrete claims about Argentina’s debt and its regional standing. One set of entries reports Argentina’s debt-to-GDP near 84–85% as of late 2024–2025 ^{[1] [5]}, while another source set gives 83.2% and compares it directly to other South American countries—Chile 41.7%, Colombia 61.3%, Peru 32.8%, and Brazil 76.5%—framing Argentina as higher than peers except Brazil in that list ^[2]. A different set reports a much higher 94%, emphasizing large foreign-currency debt, and another claims an unexpectedly low public debt of 40%, highlighting measurement differences ^{[3] [4]}.

2. Timeline: How the numbers shift across dates and framings

The timing of each claim spans September 2025 through January 2026, and one entry references 2024 values presented in 2025 analyses ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}. The 84–85% numbers appear in September 2025 summaries ^{[1] [5]}, while the 94% figure is published in November 2025, suggesting either a deterioration in headline ratios or an alternative debt definition that counts more liabilities ^[3]. The 40% public-debt report dated January 2026 indicates a narrower definition—public debt excluding certain domestic or contingent liabilities—underscoring how definitions and newer accounting can change headline ratios ^[4].

3. Comparing Argentina to neighbors: Relative position with caveats

One comparative dataset explicitly places Argentina above several neighbors—Chile, Colombia, and Peru—while listing Brazil at 76.5% and thus lower than Argentina in that source’s table ^[2]. Other materials frame Argentina as having a higher burden than many regional peers but still lower than some advanced economies like Spain (101.6% quoted for context) ^[1]. These comparisons rely on a single snapshot and assume uniform definitions; the inconsistent Argentine datapoints mean that regional ranking shifts depending on whether total, public, or foreign-currency debt is compared ^{[1] [2] [3]}.

4. Why numbers diverge: domestic versus foreign, public versus total

The materials highlight the core methodological split: some figures appear to capture total debt—including foreign currency and possibly private or contingent liabilities—yielding higher ratios near 84–94% ^{[1] [3]}. Another figure labeled “public debt” at 40% likely excludes certain domestic obligations or counts only consolidated central-government liabilities ^[4]. The presence of a high share of foreign-currency debt and banking-system exposure is repeatedly flagged, which magnifies vulnerability even if headline public-debt ratios look lower ^{[3] [4]}.

5. Broader context: global debt trends and economic forecasts that matter

A global framing notes public debt rising to about 93% of GDP in 2025, offering context that Argentina’s higher ratios are part of wider trends but still comparatively elevated regionally ^[6]. Forecasts within the dataset predict meaningful economic growth and very high inflation—a 4.5% growth projection alongside consumer price growth estimates of 63% in 2025 and 32% in 2026—which would alter debt dynamics by changing the denominator (GDP) and the real value of nominal debt ^[4]. These macro projections affect whether ratios will mechanically improve via growth or worsen via inflation-driven fiscal strain ^{[4] [6]}.

6. Market signal and risk assessments: what creditors see

Risk indicators in the materials show Argentina’s sovereign risk elevated—risk‑rating points near 1,456, described as second-highest in Latin America after Venezuela—pointing to heightened financing costs and limited international market access regardless of which debt ratio is used ^[7]. High external and banking-sector exposure to sovereign liabilities increases the chance that even moderate headline ratios could translate into real financing stress if reserves and access to foreign currency are constrained ^{[4] [7]}.

7. Bottom line: a nuanced regional comparison, not a single answer

The supplied sources do not yield one definitive Argentina debt-to-GDP number; instead they present a range reflecting different definitions and dates—roughly 40% (narrow public debt) to 94% (broad total/foreign currency exposure)—with most mid-range claims around 83–85% used for regional comparison ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}. Consequently, Argentina can be described as higher than several South American peers on many measures, but precise ranking depends on whether comparisons use uniform definitions for debt and the same reference year ^{[2] [3]}.