What was average annual inflation under Biden (2021–2025) compared to Trump (2017–2020)?

1. How different sources define “average” matters

Journalists and analysts use at least two distinct ways to summarize inflation: a simple average of year‑over‑year CPI readings across a president’s term, or an annualized rate that compares total cumulative CPI change over a span and converts it to an annual figure. Investopedia’s piece states the “average year‑over‑year inflation rate under Joe Biden was 4.95%” ^[1], while Forbes reports an annualized inflation rate of about 5.4% under Biden and 1.9% under Trump for comparable 45‑month windows — a different method and window that yields a different headline ^[2].

2. Time window selection changes the result

Numbers shift depending on where you start and stop. Several sources note inflation spiked in 2022 and then cooled: GIS Reports documents inflation rising from 1.4% in January 2021 to a 9.1% peak in June 2022 and falling to 3.0% by June 2024 ^[3]. SmartAsset and other analyses emphasize that Biden’s term included a sharp post‑pandemic surge followed by cooling as the Fed tightened, which produces a higher average than the steadier low‑inflation years under Trump’s first term ^[4].

3. Republican and White House claims — competing narratives

The Trump White House frames 2025 data as a return to low inflation, with White House messaging asserting dramatic improvements compared with the Biden years ^{[5] [6]}. Independent outlets push back or add nuance: PolitiFact notes that core inflation (excluding food and energy) has edged down modestly under Trump compared with Biden’s last months — from 3.2% to about 3.0% in the cited measure — and rates depend on which series you examine ^[7]. The New York Times and AP point out political messaging sometimes overstates or simplifies these shifts ^{[8] [9]}.

4. Which headline is most useful? Context matters

A single average number can obscure volatility. SmartAsset warns averages mask “meaningful differences in volatility and timing,” noting Biden saw a rapid jump beginning in 2021 and gradual easing later, whereas Trump’s pre‑2021 years were relatively stable ^[4]. The Bulwark and GIS Reports highlight that peak months (like mid‑2022) drove much of Biden’s high averages ^{[10] [3]}. Forbes’ annualized comparison highlights cumulative price level increases over matched months, which yields a wider gap between presidencies ^[2].

5. What the provided sources do not settle

Available sources do not present a single official, consistently computed “average annual inflation 2017–2020 vs. 2021–2025” table using the same method for both presidents. Some outlets offer site‑specific calculators (e.g., BidenToTrump) and White House summaries with their chosen framing ^{[11] [6]}, but those adopt particular assumptions. If you want a precise apples‑to‑apples figure, the sources suggest you must pick (a) the CPI series (headline vs core), (b) the exact start and end months, and (c) whether to use simple averages of year‑over‑year rates or an annualized cumulative calculation ^{[4] [7] [2]}.

6. Practical takeaway for readers

If you use Investopedia’s reported figure, Biden’s average year‑over‑year inflation is about 4.95% ^[1]. If you use Forbes’ annualized approach over matched 45‑month windows, the gap is wider: roughly 5.4% under Biden versus 1.9% under Trump ^[2]. Independent fact‑checkers and news outlets underscore that core inflation and recent months in 2025 show some moderation under Trump, but interpretation varies by measure and political lens ^{[7] [9]}. Choose the method that matches your question — trend over time, peak pain, or cumulative price growth — and then compare like with like.