Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
What were the average gas prices during Trump's presidency compared to previous administrations?
Executive Summary
Average retail gasoline prices during Donald Trump’s presidency (2017–2021) sat in the mid-to-high $2 per gallon range annually, lower than the highs reached in 2022 but similar to or slightly below averages in parts of the Obama era and above some years of the Bush era. Federal data and multiple analyses show Trump-era yearly averages around $2.40–$2.96 per gallon, with pandemic-driven lows in 2020 and a rebound into 2021; comparisons must account for global events, seasonality, and methodological choices in computing “average” [1] [2].
1. What the data actually show — a clear numeric picture
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s series summarized in the provided material lists annual average retail gasoline prices during Trump’s term as roughly $2.41 [3], $2.74 [4], $2.72 [5], $2.17 [6], and $2.96 [7], yielding a multi-year mean near $2.6–$2.8 per gallon depending on weighting and formulation choices [1] [2]. These numbers reflect MSRP-style national averages for “all grades, all formulations,” and show a notable 2020 dip tied to the COVID demand collapse and a 2021 rebound heading into the next administration. The same datasets make clear that year-to-year variation is large, so single-point comparisons (e.g., “prices were $X when Y took office”) can mislead without averaging or contextual controls [2] [8].
2. How Trump’s averages compare with recent predecessors — context matters
Comparing administrations requires choosing a metric: annual averages, start-to-three-years, or day-in-office snapshots. The compiled sources show that Trump-era averages were lower than the peak years of the Obama recovery (where averages sometimes exceeded $3.00) but higher than lower-price stretches in the 1990s and some 2000s years under Bush. Analysts note Biden’s later spike to above $5 per gallon in 2022, which is outside Trump’s term and therefore not directly attributable to his policies when comparing multi-year averages [1] [9]. The Federal Reserve Economic Data and EIA time series permit multiple valid comparisons, and each choice changes the headline conclusion about who “did better” on gas prices [10] [2].
3. What analysts say about causes — limited presidential control
Experts repeatedly emphasize that presidents have limited direct control over retail gasoline prices, which are driven primarily by global crude oil markets, OPEC+ production decisions, refinery utilization, seasonal demand patterns, and shocks like pandemics or wars. Reporting cited that price declines or increases during any presidency are often tied to OPEC production and seasonal demand rather than discrete White House actions; for example, a fall below $3 under Trump was tied by analysts to OPEC supply and seasonality rather than an explicit administration policy [11] [12]. Fact-checkers and energy analysts consistently caution against attributing short-term retail price moves to presidential rhetoric or single domestic policy levers [11].
4. Where different sources diverge — methodology and messaging
Divergences among the supplied sources come down to time window, price series selected, and narrative framing. PolitiFact’s comparison emphasized percentage changes in early tenures and singled out unusually high prices under Biden relative to his start, while EIA/FRED series focus on annual national averages across full calendar years; both are accurate within their metric choices but yield different impressions about which administration “had lower prices” [9] [10]. Media stories that highlight a single-day low or claim dramatic partisan attribution often omit the EIA’s multi-year averages and ignore seasonality and global supply shocks, leading to conflicting public messages about responsibility [9] [2].
5. Bottom line for readers — how to interpret comparisons going forward
To draw reliable conclusions about gas prices across presidencies, use consistent datasets (EIA/FRED), multi-year averages, and explicit acknowledgment of external drivers like OPEC, pandemics, or wars. The evidence in the supplied material shows Trump’s presidency featured mid-to-high $2 averages with a pandemic trough and a 2021 rebound, placing it below the 2022 spike but not categorically the lowest or highest compared with recent presidencies depending on the metric chosen. Any claim that a president “caused” national gasoline price levels requires demonstrating causal influence on global crude markets or refinery output, a high evidentiary bar not met by the reporting cited here [1] [11].