Which U.S. state lottery games currently offer the best overall odds of winning any prize?
Executive summary
Smaller, state-specific draw games (daily “pick” games and Cash‑5 style lotteries) and many scratch‑off tickets offer the best overall odds of winning any prize — frequently far better than multi‑state jackpot games like Powerball or Mega Millions [1] [2]. Examples cited in recent compilations include Colorado Cash 5 (≈1 in 5.22), Minnesota North 5 (≈1 in 6), New Jersey Pick‑6 with XTRA (≈1 in 7), and New York Cash4Life (≈1 in 8), while certain scratch‑offs advertise overall odds as good as about 1 in 4 [3] [2] [4].
1. Why “overall odds” matter more than the jackpot line
Most public attention goes to jackpot odds, which for Powerball and Mega Millions are astronomically long, but overall‑win odds measure any prize — even small ones — and are the relevant metric for someone trying to maximize the chance of winning something on a ticket [2]. State and single‑state games are structured with fewer number combinations and more secondary prizes, which produces much shorter overall odds than multi‑state jackpots that trade chance for massive top prizes [2] [5].
2. The best categories: daily pick games and Cash‑5 style draws
Pick‑3 and pick‑4 daily games consistently rank as the easiest to win because players choose fewer digits from smaller pools, and payouts are frequent though modest; experts explicitly recommend these in‑state offerings for higher odds [1]. Likewise, Cash‑5 or Rolling Cash‑5 games — smaller pool draws branded differently by state — often report overall odds in the single‑digit range (for example, Colorado Cash 5 ≈1 in 5.22 and Ohio Rolling Cash 5 ≈1 in 9) [3] [2].
3. Concrete state examples from recent compilations
Aggregators and lottery blogs list state games with the best overall odds: Minnesota’s North 5 (~1 in 6), New Jersey’s Pick‑6 with XTRA (~1 in 7), New York Cash4Life (~1 in 8), and Colorado’s Cash 5 (~1 in 5.22) — figures drawn from comparisons of state game rules and published odds [3]. Other analyses single out New Hampshire as having very favorable overall chances among state games in one survey (≈1 in 10 for its easier games), underscoring that “best” varies by what each state runs [6].
4. Scratch‑offs: short odds, small returns, and caveats
Scratch‑off tickets frequently advertise overall odds far superior to big draws — some games state roughly 1 in 4 odds of winning any prize — but those wins are often breakeven prizes or small payouts, and the distribution of remaining prizes changes over a game’s life [2] [4]. LottoEdge and state disclosures show that “overall odds” reflect the whole run of a game and can differ from the real‑time chances of hitting a larger remaining prize [4].
5. What to watch for and where to verify numbers
Odds are game‑specific and dynamic: new game rules, multipliers, ticket price changes, and sold‑through prize pools alter the math — for instance, Mega Millions recently adjusted rules to improve advertised overall odds slightly (reported improvement from ~1 in 24.12 to ~1 in 23.08) [7]. Comprehensive, up‑to‑date comparisons are available in sortable tables on sites that scrape state publications (Lottery USA) and in state lottery game pages, which should be consulted before deciding which game to play [8] [9].
6. Bottom line — where to find the best shot at “winning anything”
For the highest probability of any prize, play in‑state daily pick games (pick‑3/pick‑4), smaller Cash‑5 style draws, or select scratch‑offs whose published overall odds are high; these categories routinely beat the overall odds of mega‑jackpot multi‑state games [1] [2] [3]. This guidance is about maximizing the chance of winning something, not expected value; every credible analysis notes that lottery tickets generally have negative expected value and that choice of game should reflect entertainment spending rather than investment thinking [5].