How did federal budget deficits change each fiscal year under Biden (2021-2025)?
Executive summary
Federal budget deficits fell sharply from a pandemic peak in FY2021 ($2.78 trillion) to lower—but still large—levels in FY2022 and FY2023, with multiple organizations linking much of that decline to the wind‑down of COVID relief; the CBO/treasury reporting and watchdog analyses show FY2025 running near $1.8 trillion as a full‑year projection and a $838 billion deficit in the first four months of FY2025 (Oct–Jan) per the January CBO review cited by the House Budget Committee [1] [2] [3]. Competing partisan accounts disagree on how much of the increase in deficits and debt is attributable to Biden policy choices versus pandemic aftereffects and rising interest costs [4] [1] [5].
1. From pandemic peak toward normalization — the headline year‑by‑year moves
Deficits spiked during the pandemic and remained historically high in FY2021 when the American Rescue Plan and other relief measures were enacted; PolitiFact and CRFB note FY2021’s deficit at about $2.78 trillion and that the later large one‑year drop (about $1.4 trillion from 2021 to 2022) was driven largely by expiring/shrinking COVID relief [1]. Public budget trackers and Treasury data confirm that the federal budget ran deficits every year and that pandemic spending pushed outlays up sharply in 2020–2021 [6].
2. Why the deficit fell after 2021 — policy or pandemic cycle?
Nonpartisan analysts cited by PolitiFact and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget attribute more than 80% of the post‑2021 reduction to the natural expiration and shrinking of COVID‑era programs, not discrete “austerity” choices [1]. CRFB’s longer accounting acknowledges both deficit‑increasing and deficit‑reducing actions during Biden’s term and estimates he approved roughly $4.7 trillion in new ten‑year debt effects through legislative and executive actions across his term, while noting some measures (like the Inflation Reduction Act) were initially scored as deficit‑reducing [4] [7].
3. FY2024–FY2025: interest and timing become central talking points
As interest costs rose, partisan and institutional analyses emphasized different drivers. The House Budget Committee highlighted fast‑growing interest payments—reporting interest at $892 billion and dramatic increases since 2021—arguing this has become a major budgetary pressure [5]. CBO projections and other trackers cited in reporting put the FY2025 full‑year deficit near $1.8 trillion, while Treasury/CBO monthlies showed an $838 billion deficit in the first four months of FY2025 (Oct–Jan), underscoring how timing of revenues/outlays and loan program shifts can alter headline numbers [2] [3].
4. Numbers matter — different tallies and partisan frames
Estimates vary by source and time window. CRFB tallies legislative and executive policies’ ten‑year scoring impacts (about $4.7 trillion net new ten‑year debt attributed to Biden actions) and notes some enacted measures initially scored to reduce deficits [4] [7]. By contrast, advocacy groups and congressional Republicans frame cumulative deficits under Biden as much larger relative to projections (examples: GOP Senate/House committee statements and private groups asserting trillions added), often highlighting future interest costs and ten‑year outlooks [8] [9]. Independent Treasury/Fiscal Service and CBO monthly reports remain the baseline data sources for calendarized FY deficits [6] [3].
5. Hidden assumptions and limitations in the debate
Analyses hinge on choices about windows (single fiscal years vs. ten‑year scores), whether to count interest rate–driven costs as administration policy effects, and how to treat pandemic‑era front‑loaded spending that naturally recedes—points CRFB and PolitiFact explicitly call out [4] [1]. Several partisan committee releases emphasize selective figures (e.g., interest totals or short‑term monthly deficits) without presenting the countervailing context about expiring COVID programs or CBO’s longer‑run projections [5] [3] [8].
6. Bottom line for the reader
Available reporting shows deficits dropped from the FY2021 pandemic peak—driven largely by the end of COVID relief programs—but remained substantial thereafter, with FY2025 projected around $1.8 trillion and early FY2025 months showing large deficits [1] [2] [3]. Analysts disagree on how much of the net increase in debt over Biden’s term is policy‑caused versus a residue of the pandemic and higher interest costs; readers should treat ten‑year policy scores (CRFB) and single‑year fiscal outcomes (Treasury/CBO monthlies) as complementary but distinct measures [4] [3] [6].
Limitations: available sources do not provide a single, consistent table listing each FY2021–FY2025 deficit in one place; the summary above synthesizes the figures and interpretations reported by Treasury/CBO summaries and analyses from CRFB, PolitiFact, and congressional committees [4] [1] [3] [6].