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Was the economy better under Biden or Trump
Executive summary
Comparing “better” under Biden or Trump depends on which metrics you use: inflation was much higher early in Biden’s term (peaking around 9% in 2022) but came down later, while early in Trump’s second term inflation has rebounded and many voters now report feeling worse off (polls show growing negative ratings under Trump) [1] [2]. Analysts and partisan sources disagree sharply on GDP, wages and trade—fact‑checks warn some social graphics invert or misuse official numbers—so simple declarations are misleading [3] [4].
1. Economic headlines: inflation and prices — who’s winning the narrative?
Inflation was a defining problem during Biden’s presidency, with a sharp surge early in his term that peaked well above typical historical levels; political and media scrutiny of those mistakes still shapes comparisons [1]. After Trump returned to the White House in 2025, inflation never fully disappeared and even showed a rebound in 2025 that critics tie in part to his tariff policy and new administration actions; multiple outlets report rising grocery and consumer prices since Trump took office [5] [6].
2. Voters’ lived experience: polling shows shifted blame to the incumbent
Public sentiment has shifted toward viewing the current economy as the incumbent’s responsibility: Gallup found nearly half of Americans in spring 2025 said Trump, not Biden, was more responsible for current conditions; by late 2025 several polls show growing negative ratings for the economy under Trump, with some surveys finding three‑quarters of respondents viewing the economy negatively [7] [2]. Journalists note that “vibes” and affordability — coffee, groceries, Thanksgiving‑meal comparisons — strongly shape political outcomes even when headline macro numbers look mixed [8] [9].
3. Growth and jobs: mixed signals, disputed totals
Some commentaries and partisan outlets highlight stronger GDP growth in portions of Trump’s early 2025 term — one piece cites Q2 2025 GDP growth of 3.8% and estimated full‑year readings around 3% — while other analyses stress that Biden’s four‑year average GDP growth was near 2.9% and that direct comparisons depend heavily on what years and quarters you choose [4] [10]. FactCheck.org warns that viral graphics and social media comparisons often misstate or invert official BEA and BLS figures, undercutting simple “Biden vs. Trump” scorecards [3].
4. Policy choices and their tradeoffs: tariffs, tax cuts, and stimulus
Pro‑GOP statements praise Trump’s 2025 agenda — lower taxes, deregulation, tariffs and large investment claims — and link policy to falling inflation and rising real wages in some short‑run reports; House Republicans cite BLS CPI movements to claim progress [11]. Critics and many journalists point to tariffs as a clear inflationary force that raises consumer costs (Yale Budget Lab cited in reporting) and to the political risk of appearing dismissive when Americans see prices rising at checkout [6] [5].
5. Which metrics matter — and why experts disagree
Economists disagree on which gauges should settle the question: headline CPI, core CPI, real wages, median household income adjusted for inflation, unemployment, stock market gains, and trade balances can tell different stories. Some analyses emphasize real family income gains under Trump’s earlier term; others emphasize the dramatic inflation spike during Biden’s first years and the long tail of price pressures [12] [1]. Fact‑checking outlets caution that selective or out‑of‑date numbers produce misleading contrasts [3].
6. Political implications: affordability trumps abstract growth
Coverage across outlets converges on a political point: even when macro growth looks “fine,” voters punish presidents who preside over high or rising everyday costs. Journalists link recent electoral setbacks for Republicans in late‑2025 to affordability complaints and to the perception that prices for staples and dining out are higher under the current administration than expected [8] [9].
7. Bottom line and guidance for readers
Available reporting shows no single uncontested verdict: Biden presided over a sharper inflation surge early in his term but some recovery in later years; Trump’s early 2025 term shows stronger GDP quarters for some measures while inflation and consumer price complaints have returned and eroded political support. For a fair comparison focus on carefully sourced, time‑matched metrics (CPI, real median income, unemployment, GDP quarters) and beware social graphics or partisan summaries that FactCheck.org flagged as misleading [3] [4].