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How does California 2024 tax revenue vary from 2023
Executive summary
California’s total state tax collections were reported at $220.59 billion for FY 2023 (Census/Statista) and California showed one of the largest reported year‑over‑year tax revenue increases in fiscal 2024 — a 17.8% rise compared with fiscal 2023 — driven largely by corporate and other volatile sources [1] [2]. However, within‑year collections for 2023–24 were uneven: personal income tax (PIT) receipts through March 31, 2024 totaled $83.87 billion and were $3.80 billion (4.34%) below the 2024‑25 Governor’s Budget expectation, while other signals — a late‑2024 corporate tax surge tied to large tech firms and budget revisions — complicate simple year‑to‑year comparisons [3] [4] [5].
1. Big picture: headline growth but a volatile composition
National compilations show California collected $220.59 billion in state government tax revenue in fiscal 2023 — the most of any state — and Pew reports California’s tax revenue rose 17.8% in fiscal 2024 versus 2023, making it one of only ten states with an increase that year [1] [2]. That headline growth masks large swings among revenue types and timing effects that make the calendar‑year or fiscal‑year comparison sensitive to accounting, refunds, and delayed filings [2] [6].
2. Personal income tax: large amounts, but under some expectations in 2024
Personal income tax is California’s dominant revenue source and the State Controller’s daily tracker shows General Fund PIT receipts through March 31, 2024 were $83.87 billion — $3.80 billion (4.34%) below the 2024‑25 Governor’s Budget expectation — and April collections were expected to be $16.30 billion as part of the fiscal‑year total [3]. Independent commentary and budget materials also document repeated upward and downward revisions to income tax projections across 2022–25, highlighting forecasting risk tied to capital gains, filing delays and tax‑year timing [7] [6].
3. Corporate and tech taxes: a late jump changed the conversation
Reporting from CalMatters documents a “mystery surge” in corporate tax revenue in mid‑ to late‑2024 and links much of the upswing to highly profitable tech companies — for example, dramatic increases in federal tax payments reported by Nvidia — and to policy changes that limited some deductions or credits, collectively boosting state revenue estimates by billions in the near term [4]. Budget documents and the May Revision describe both upgraded market performance and lingering uncertainty; state analysts flagged that some of the tax‑receipt gains related to the 2023 tax year were lower than projected, then later influenced by market rebounds [5] [6].
4. Property taxes and local revenue add a steady component
Property tax revenue showed clear growth into 2024: the State Board of Equalization reported an $8.9 billion increase in property tax revenue from January 1, 2023 to January 1, 2024, with locally assessed property up 7.1% and state‑assessed property up 13% — providing more predictable funding for schools and local governments [8]. This growth is a less volatile contributor than capital‑gains‑driven PIT or corporate income, but it also depends on valuation timing and assessment practices [8].
5. Forecast revisions and budget mechanics changed the fiscal story
The Governor’s May Revision and related budget papers describe both market rebounds that improved near‑term outlooks and downgrades in assumptions that reduced available General Fund cash (including an assumed withdrawal from the Budget Stabilization Account). Analysts and commentators noted that Newsom’s budgets have had large forecasting errors on income tax receipts, producing large revisions over the 2022–25 budget window [5] [7] [6]. Those revisions mean that year‑to‑year increases on paper don’t always translate into new spending capacity under California’s constitutional rules [5] [9].
6. What to watch next — timing, one‑offs, and structural trends
Available reporting highlights three risk factors that will shape comparisons between 2023 and 2024: timing shifts from IRS and state filing deadline changes that moved receipts across fiscal years (notably the 2023 extension to November), one‑time corporate or capital‑gains windfalls (some tied to a few tech firms), and the baseline growth in property tax collections [6] [4] [8]. Analysts caution that some of the 2024 gains are temporary or concentrated, and that routine forecasting errors mean future budgets will likely continue to be revised [7] [2].
Limitations and missing pieces: available sources provide fiscal and sectoral snapshots but do not supply a single unified table comparing total California tax revenue line‑by‑line for 2023 vs 2024; detailed month‑by‑month reconciliations and the latest post‑audit totals are not found in the current reporting set (not found in current reporting).