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Which state has a higher GDP per capita, California or Texas, in 2025?
Executive Summary
California is likely to have a higher GDP per capita than Texas based on the most recent state-level per-capita figures cited in the provided analyses: California $98,737 vs Texas $84,089 [1], but the dataset excerpts supplied do not include definitive state GDP-per-capita figures for 2025, so a categorical statement for 2025 cannot be proven from the available material. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is the authoritative source for state GDP and GDP per capita and is the appropriate reference to settle the question for 2025; the supplied summaries note California’s higher per-capita levels in recent data while also flagging Texas’ faster GDP growth, which could narrow the gap over time [2] [3] [4] [5] [6].
1. What the evidence explicitly claims — the competing headlines that matter
The supplied analyses present two primary claims: first, California’s GDP per capita was higher than Texas’ in the recent quoted period [1], with the figures $98,737 for California and $84,089 for Texas; second, Texas experienced higher GDP growth in the referenced period [1] — 7.4% for Texas versus 2.0% for California — which implies a faster-growing economy though not necessarily a higher per-person output [2] [3] [4]. Another explicit point made in the material is that while aggregate GDP totals for 2024 are provided (California $4.103 trillion; Texas $2.709 trillion), those totals alone do not resolve per-capita comparisons for 2025 without concurrent population data or a direct per-capita time series [5]. The documents consistently identify the BEA as the primary, definitive source for state-level per-capita GDP rankings but note the absence of a single uncontested 2025 dataset in the provided excerpts [6].
2. The hard numbers available and what they imply about 2023–2024 trends
The summaries include concrete figures for aggregate state GDP and for per-capita measures in 2023, which are the strongest numerical evidence in the packet: California per-capita $98,737, Texas per-capita $84,089 [1], and state GDP totals for 2024 showing California substantially larger in aggregate economic output (California $4.103 trillion, Texas $2.709 trillion) [2] [3] [5]. These numbers demonstrate that California had a materially higher output per resident in the last cited per-capita dataset, and California’s much larger aggregate GDP in 2024 reinforces its scale advantage. However, these figures do not by themselves prove the 2025 per-capita ranking; they do indicate that as of the last explicit per-capita snapshot, California led, and any 2025 reversal would require either accelerated Texas population-adjusted GDP gains or a relative decline in California’s per-person output [7] [5].
3. The evidence gap — why the question about 2025 remains unresolved here
None of the supplied analyses contains a definitive state-by-state GDP per capita for 2025; the excerpts either stop at 2023 per-capita figures or present aggregate GDP through 2024 without matching population denominators, which is insufficient to compute 2025 per-capita values. The summaries explicitly note this limitation and recommend the BEA as the canonical source to resolve the gap because it publishes annual state GDP and per-capita series; absent a BEA 2025 per-capita table in the packet, any claim that one state definitively outranked the other in 2025 would be inferential, not documented by the supplied materials [5] [6] [8]. Therefore, the appropriate conclusion from the provided files is that the 2023 per-capita lead belonged to California but the 2025 outcome is unproven within this dataset [2] [3].
4. Trajectory matters: growth rates, population changes, and how they could alter rankings
The analyses point out that Texas recorded higher GDP growth in 2023 (7.4%) compared with California (2.0%), a differential that, if sustained and coupled with slower population growth in Texas or faster population growth in California, could influence future per-capita outcomes over a multi-year horizon [4]. Conversely, California’s high per-capita starting point means Texas would need sustained above-average growth or favorable population dynamics to close the gap. The supplied material does not include state-by-state 2024–2025 growth or population-adjusted GDP changes, so the growth-rate observation is directional: it signals momentum but does not provide the arithmetic to confirm a 2025 lead for Texas. Evaluating whether Texas overtook California in 2025 requires combining updated BEA per-capita releases with state population estimates for 2024–2025 [4] [5].
5. Bottom line and where to look next for a definitive answer
Based on the available summaries, California held a higher GDP per capita in the most recent per-capita snapshot provided [1], and aggregate GDP figures through 2024 reinforce California’s larger economy; however, the data packet lacks a direct BEA-style GDP-per-capita figure for 2025, so declaring a 2025 winner is unsupported by these excerpts [2] [5] [6]. To obtain a definitive 2025 comparison, consult the BEA state GDP and GDP per capita release for 2025 and cross-check with U.S. Census Bureau or state population estimates for 2024–2025; those are the authoritative inputs required to settle whether Texas’ faster growth closed the per-capita gap by 2025 [6] [8] [7].