How much of Canada's national debt is held domestically versus by foreign investors?
Executive summary
Foreign (non‑resident) investors held roughly $512–$527 billion of Government of Canada marketable debt in early 2025, equal to about one‑third to just over one‑half of various reported aggregates depending on the measure cited (about 36% in one report; one author cites $527 billion and frames it as ~55%) [1] [2]. Official Debt Management publications show Ottawa plans to borrow about $623 billion in 2025–26, of which $612 billion is in Canadian currency and $11 billion in foreign currency for reserves [3].
1. Foreign stakes: rising and significant
Foreign ownership of federal marketable debt has increased materially in recent reports: National Bank’s summary and media coverage put non‑resident holdings at $512 billion as of March 2025, roughly 36% of total outstanding Government of Canada debt [1]. Independent commentary citing Statistics Canada places foreign portfolio holdings at about $527 billion as of February 2025 [2]. Both figures show foreign investors are an important marginal supplier of financing to Ottawa in 2024–25 [1] [2].
2. Domestic holders: the rest of the story
Available sources show domestic investors absorbed the new issuance when non‑residents paused buying in early 2025 and that domestic players—banks, insurers, pension funds and retail investors—remain large holders of government bonds [1] [2]. The Department of Finance frames most planned 2025–26 borrowings ($612 billion of $623 billion planned issuance) as Canadian‑currency issuance aimed at refinancing domestic maturities, implying a large share of the outstanding stock stays within domestic markets even as foreign participation rises [3].
3. Different measures, different answers
Confusion over “how much” stems from what is being measured: marketable federal securities versus total government debt; holdings at a point in time versus shares of new issuance; and whether provincial debts or foreign‑currency liabilities are included. Source reporting ranges from 36% foreign ownership of Government of Canada securities [1] to an interpretation in The Audit that $527 billion represents “around 55 percent of our total debt” [2]. Those two claims cannot both be read as equivalent without clarifying which debt aggregate is used; the sources do not reconcile that difference for us [1] [2].
4. Why the split matters politically and economically
Higher foreign ownership matters because interest paid to non‑residents leaves the domestic economy and because shifts in non‑resident appetite can change funding costs and liquidity; observers note foreign participation added liquidity and helped Ottawa finance deficits, yet also increased exposure to international portfolio flows [1] [4]. The Parliamentary study and historical commentary warn that reliance on offshore financing changes where interest payments go and can reduce domestic policy autonomy—arguments repeated in past reviews of Canada’s external exposures [5] [4].
5. Short‑term dynamics versus long‑term stock
Market behavior in quarters can diverge from stock positions: one source reports non‑residents bought about 60% of newly issued federal debt in 2024–25 according to a National Bank note, while another notes non‑residents added no net new federal debt from January to March 2025, leaving domestic investors to absorb issuance that quarter [1]. That shows the flow (who finances new issuance) can spike or ebb even when the accumulated stock of foreign‑held debt remains substantial [1].
6. Data gaps and limitations
Official Debt Management documentation gives the size and planned composition of gross borrowing for 2025–26 ($623 billion total; $612 billion in Canadian currency and $11 billion in foreign currency) but does not in these excerpts provide a single, up‑to‑date breakdown stating “X% domestic / Y% foreign” across all federal liabilities [3]. Sources also use different datasets (Statistics Canada, private‑sector analysts, media) and different dates (Feb vs Mar 2025), which explains divergent headline percentages [1] [2] [3].
7. Bottom line and what to watch next
Current reporting places non‑resident holdings in the roughly half‑trillion dollar range (about $512–$527 billion) and reports a foreign share in at least one prominent calculation of about 36% of Government of Canada securities as of March 2025 [1] [2]. Watch official Debt Management Reports and Statistics Canada releases for reconciled, vintage‑dated tables; absent those, differing methodologies will continue to produce divergent headline shares [3] [2]. Available sources do not mention a single definitive, consolidated breakdown that reconciles all cited aggregates and percentages.