Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
What are the debt-to-GDP ratios for each Canadian province in 2025?
Executive summary
There is no single official table in the provided reporting that lists “debt-to‑GDP for each province in 2025”; available sources instead give provincial snapshots, combined federal‑provincial aggregates, and selected provincial forecasts (not a complete 10‑province 2025 list) [1][2][3]. The Fraser Institute’s 2025 bulletin gives combined federal‑provincial debt shares by province (for example, Newfoundland & Labrador ~88.4% and Alberta ~40.8%) and projects Canada’s combined federal‑provincial debt at roughly 74.8% of GDP in 2025/26 [1][4].
1. The question you asked — and what the available reporting actually contains
Your original query asks for “debt‑to‑GDP ratios for each Canadian province in 2025.” The documents supplied do not contain a single, official, province‑by‑province list labelled “2025 provincial debt‑to‑GDP” covering all provinces; instead, think‑tank work (Fraser Institute) reports combined federal+provincial debt shares allocated to provinces, Statistics Canada publishes aggregate government finance numbers (but not the requested complete provincial table in the supplied snippets), and provincial budgets or bank notes offer individual province forecasts [1][5][3]. Therefore a full, definitive 10‑province set for 2025 is not found in current reporting provided here.
2. What the Fraser Institute reports and what it means
The Fraser Institute’s 2025 study is the most detailed set of figures in the search results for provincial comparisons: it projects combined federal‑plus‑provincial debt‑to‑GDP at about 74.8% for 2025/26 and lists province‑level combined ratios — e.g., Newfoundland & Labrador near 88.4% and Alberta near 40.8% — and notes Quebec as very high (about 86.5% in some figures) [1][6]. Important caveats: the Fraser numbers are combined federal + provincial debt allocated across provinces (not only provincial‑government debt) and rely on the authors’ method for apportioning federal debt to provinces, so they measure “combined” burdens, not strictly provincial public‑sector liabilities alone [6].
3. Official aggregate data and differences in measurement
Statistics Canada’s government finance releases give the broad picture (net debt‑to‑GDP for federal and provincial/territorial/local governments and quarterly changes) but the snippets provided show aggregate net debt ratios (e.g., federal net debt ~32.1% of GDP; provincial/territorial/local net debt ~14.9% in Q1 2025) rather than a provincial breakdown in the supplied excerpt [5]. That means official aggregate measures exist, but the specific provincial 2025 ratios you asked for are not present in the provided Statistics Canada excerpt [5].
4. Provincial budget notes and independent forecasts — examples and inconsistencies
Some provinces and private forecasters publish their own net‑debt projections: for example, TD Economics projects British Columbia’s net debt‑to‑GDP to rise toward ~26.7% in FY2025/26 in one scenario [3]. Financial‑sector notes and media pieces (RBC, PBO commentary cited by Financial Post) focus on federal forecasts and overall risk, with RBC projecting a federal debt‑to‑GDP near 42.2% for 2025‑26 [7]. These sources illustrate that depending on whether you look at provincial‑only net debt, provincial liabilities including off‑balance items, or combined federal+provincial allocations, you will get materially different ratios [3][7].
5. Why numbers differ — methodology and allocation choices
Analysts disagree on whether to (a) report only a province’s public‑sector net debt as its debt ratio, (b) add an allocated share of federal debt to produce a “combined” per‑province burden, or (c) use gross debt vs net debt, market value vs book value. The Fraser Institute uses an allocation of federal debt to provinces to produce combined ratios — which raises headline debt‑to‑GDP percentages but is not the same as provincial government net debt reported in provincial budgets or Statistics Canada tables [6][1]. The choice of GDP denominator year/fiscal year also shifts percentages.
6. What you can do next to get a complete, comparable provincial list for 2025
To produce a full and comparable 2025 provincial table you should: [8] decide which measure you want — provincial‑government net debt only, provincial gross debt, or “combined federal+provincial” allocated debt; [9] pull each province’s public accounts or 2025 budget for the province‑only ratios (several provinces publish net debt and debt‑to‑GDP in budget documents — Ontario’s debt portfolio pages are an example) [10][3]; and [11] if you want a combined federal allocation, use the methodology from a published study (e.g., Fraser Institute) or the Department of Finance’s approach so you can replicate the allocation and cite it [6][1].
7. Bottom line and limitations
Available reporting here gives clear headline figures for combined federal‑provincial debt (~74.8%–75.2% of GDP) and selected province examples (Newfoundland & Labrador ~88.4%, Quebec high ~86.5%, Alberta low ~40.8%), but does not present a single, official, province‑by‑province 2025 table of debt‑to‑GDP for all ten provinces in one place in these snippets [4][1][2]. If you want, I can assemble a consistent 10‑province table if you tell me which specific debt definition you prefer (provincial net debt only vs combined federal+provincial allocation) and I will pull the relevant provincial budget/Statistics Canada lines from the sources you provide or permit me to search.