Which provinces have seen the largest increases in debt-to-GDP since pre-COVID 2019 levels?
Executive summary
Measured against the last full pre‑pandemic year (2019/20), the largest upward moves in provincial debt‑to‑GDP appear concentrated in Atlantic Canada and a handful of central provinces — notably Newfoundland & Labrador, Manitoba, Quebec and New Brunswick — though official sources do not publish a single, consistent province‑by‑province delta series covering exactly the same concept and period [1] [2] [3]. National and independent analyses show combined federal‑plus‑provincial ratios rose materially from 2019/20 to 2024/25, and several provinces that already carried high debt burdens in 2019 now sit well above 100% on combined measures [1] [2].
1. How reporters are measuring the change — multiple concepts, one headline: rising burdens
The conversation about “which provinces rose the most” depends on the metric: Statistics Canada publishes provincial gross and net debt figures as percentages of provincial GDP for 2019–2023 while think‑tank work (Fraser Institute) produces combined federal‑plus‑provincial net debt‑to‑GDP projections through 2024/25; both sources point to a clear upward trajectory since pre‑COVID 2019 but they do not present a single unified ranking of 2019‑to‑2024 deltas by province in one table [3] [1].
2. Provinces that show the largest current burdens — proxies for big increases
By the most recent available provincial snapshots, Quebec and Manitoba show among the highest gross debt‑to‑GDP ratios in 2023 — 83.0% and 79.7% respectively — which, when combined with evidence that combined federal‑provincial ratios rose nationwide from 65.9% in 2019/20 to roughly 74.8% in 2024/25, suggests these provinces have experienced substantial increases since 2019 [3] [1]. Independent reporting and the Fraser Institute’s combined‑debt analysis also place Newfoundland & Labrador and New Brunswick among the jurisdictions with the highest combined burdens by 2024/25, pointing to large net increases relative to pre‑pandemic levels [1] [2].
3. Newfoundland & Labrador stands out in several studies
Fraser Institute projections identify Newfoundland & Labrador as having the highest combined federal‑provincial debt‑to‑GDP ratio in their 2024/25 forecast, a signal that the province’s burden grew sharply from pre‑COVID baselines even if the study does not publish the exact percentage‑point move for every province side‑by‑side [1]. Multiple commentators also single out Atlantic provinces — with Newfoundland & Labrador repeatedly highlighted — as having climbed faster because smaller economies amplify the GDP‑share impact of borrowing [4] [1].
4. Manitoba and Quebec: very high ratios imply large increases
Reporting that seven provinces had combined burdens larger than their economies by 2022 and that Manitoba (141.4%) and Quebec (141.3%) were at the top of those combined rankings shows these provinces moved from high pre‑COVID levels to even higher combined burdens during and after the pandemic years — again underlining large increases, though the articles present levels more than explicit 2019→2022 deltas [2].
5. Caveats, alternative readings and data gaps
The headline limitation is methodological: some sources report gross provincial debt‑to‑GDP, others report net debt, and Fraser’s influential work allocates federal debt across provinces to produce combined federal‑provincial ratios — a method that changes rankings and complicates a straight delta comparison [5] [1]. Statistics Canada provides consistent provincial series for 2019–2023 (gross/net), but the public releases cited here summarize levels rather than publishing a neat 2019→2023 percentage‑point change table for every province in the same conceptual framework [3]. Different definitions and allocation rules mean that “largest increases” can look different if measured as provincial gross debt vs provincial net debt vs combined federal+provincial net debt [5] [3].
6. Bottom line
Synthesis of Statistics Canada, Fraser Institute and contemporary reporting points to Newfoundland & Labrador, Manitoba, Quebec and New Brunswick as the provinces that have experienced the most pronounced increases in debt‑to‑GDP since the pre‑COVID 2019 baseline, with Quebec and Manitoba among the highest gross‑debt provinces in 2023 and Newfoundland & Labrador topping combined‑debt rankings in Fraser’s 2024/25 projections [3] [1] [2]. A precise per‑province ranking of 2019→2024 percentage‑point changes requires harmonizing net/gross concepts and allocation rules or consulting a single database that publishes comparable year‑by‑year provincial ratios; that harmonized table is not present among the sources provided [5] [3].