Which Canadian provinces have the fastest-growing debt-to-GDP ratios since 2020?
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Executive summary
Provincial debt-to-GDP trends matter because much of Canada’s post‑2020 borrowing occurred at both federal and provincial levels; the Fraser Institute reports combined federal–provincial debt-to-GDP rising from 65.9% in 2019/20 to an expected 74.8% in 2024/25, and identifies Newfoundland & Labrador as the province with the highest combined ratio (88.4%) and Alberta the lowest (40.8%) [1]. National statistics show consolidated government debt spiked in 2020 (gross debt to GDP hit 130.0% in 2020 on one measure) before falling again in 2021, while Statistics Canada reports general government net debt at 19.2% of GDP in Q1 2025, up from 18.6% a year earlier [2] [3].
1. Which provinces are singled out as having the largest combined debt burdens
The Fraser Institute’s 2025 edition flags Newfoundland & Labrador as having the highest combined federal–provincial debt-to-GDP ratio (88.4%) and Alberta the lowest (40.8%) among provinces; the same Fraser Institute commentary also lists Nova Scotia as high on combined measures in another release [1] [4]. These pieces present combined federal-plus-provincial figures rather than isolated provincial-only ratios, so they reflect both Ottawa’s and provincial borrowing [1] [4].
2. The post‑2020 spike and what “fastest‑growing” would mean here
All available sources agree debt surged around 2020 as governments financed COVID measures: consolidated government gross debt rose sharply, with one source noting gross debt jumped to record highs in 2020 and then retreated somewhat in 2021 [2]. “Fastest‑growing debt‑to‑GDP since 2020” therefore can mean either the largest absolute increase in a province’s combined debt share of GDP, or the steepest year‑over‑year growth rate; current reporting in the provided sources primarily reports cross‑sectional levels (who has the highest ratio) rather than a ranked year‑by‑year growth list by province [1] [4] [2]. Available sources do not mention a definitive ranked list of provinces by change in debt‑to‑GDP since 2020.
3. Federal versus provincial contributions — framing matters
Fraser Institute analysis emphasizes combined federal and provincial net debt-to-GDP to illustrate overall fiscal pressure, noting combined ratios rose from 65.9% in 2019/20 to an expected 74.8% by 2024/25 [1]. That framing highlights that much of the movement in a province’s “combined” ratio can be driven by federal borrowing and by changes in the province’s own GDP [1]. Statistics Canada gives a different perspective by separating federal and sub‑federal net debt: in Q1 2025 federal net debt stood at 32.1% of GDP and provincial/territorial/local governments at 14.9% — a reminder that provincial shares are smaller when isolated from federal totals [3].
4. Data differences, methodology and why numbers vary
Sources differ in definitions (gross vs. net debt, consolidated general government vs. federal/provincial slices) and timing. Wikipedia’s consolidated gross‑debt narrative cites a 130.0% peak in 2020 on one consolidated measure and 95.3% of GDP in Q3 2020 for government debt securities liabilities, whereas MacroTrends and CEIC produce different series and percentages, and Statistics Canada reports net debt‑to‑GDP at much lower levels for 2025 [2] [5] [6] [3]. These methodological gaps explain why a province may appear to have dramatically rising debt under one series but not under another [2] [3].
5. What the available reporting supports — and what it does not
Available sources clearly support that combined debt burdens increased after 2020, and that Newfoundland & Labrador, Nova Scotia (per one Fraser Institute note) and other provinces show high combined ratios while Alberta shows a low combined ratio [1] [4]. However, the sources do not provide a specific, consistent ranked list of which provinces had the fastest growth in debt‑to‑GDP since 2020 by either absolute or percentage change; that exact question is not answered in current reporting (not found in current reporting).
6. Competing viewpoints and implicit agendas to watch
Think tanks like the Fraser Institute emphasize fiscal risk and call for return to balanced budgets, which frames increases as alarming and policy‑actionable [1] [4]. Statistics Canada and consolidated data providers present both gross and net measures that can temper alarm — net measures and separating federal from provincial debt show a smaller provincial-only footprint [3] [2]. Readers should note the Fraser Institute’s policy orientation favoring fiscal restraint; that perspective shapes which aggregates (combined federal‑provincial net debt) are emphasized [1] [4].
7. Bottom line for the original question
If you want a definitive ranking of provinces by the fastest growth in debt‑to‑GDP since 2020, available sources do not publish that consistent, province‑by‑province growth ranking; they do, however, show combined debt‑to‑GDP rose nationally since 2019/20 to mid‑2020s levels and identify Newfoundland & Labrador as the province with the highest combined ratio and Alberta the lowest [1] [4] [3]. For a precise provincial growth ranking you will need province‑level time‑series net and gross debt data (and consistent GDP denominators) from Statistics Canada or provincial finance ministries, which are not provided in the sources above (not found in current reporting).