Fact check: If on June 1st of 2008, I had invested $50,000 into a Credit Default Swap against AA rated MBS, and then cashed out in December 8th of 2008, how much money would I have made?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the available analyses, it is not possible to provide a specific dollar amount for the hypothetical CDS investment scenario. While CDS played a significant role in the 2008 financial crisis, none of the sources provide concrete data about returns on specific CDS investments during the June-December 2008 timeframe ^[1].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several important contextual points need to be considered:

• CDS markets were largely unregulated during this period, which contributed to systemic risk in the financial system ^[1]
• Contrary to popular belief, AAA-rated securities, particularly subprime AAA securities, performed better than conventional narratives suggested ^[2]
• The complexity of CDS instruments made their true risk and value difficult to assess ^[1]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement contains several problematic assumptions:

• It oversimplifies the complexity of CDS trading during the financial crisis. These were not straightforward investments that could be easily bought and sold by individual investors ^[1]
• The question assumes that profiting from CDS was guaranteed during this period, when in reality, the situation was much more nuanced
• It overlooks the fact that AAA-rated securities performed differently than commonly believed ^[2], which would have affected CDS returns

Those who benefit from promoting simplified narratives about the 2008 financial crisis include:

• Financial authors and consultants selling crisis-related expertise
• Investment firms promoting their ability to profit from market downturns
• Critics of financial regulation who use simplified examples to argue for or against specific policies