Chart of inflation
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Executive summary
U.S. headline inflation eased to roughly 3.0 percent on a 12‑month basis in late 2025, with the next official CPI update scheduled for December 18, 2025 (covering November) after an October report was canceled because of the government shutdown [1]. The Federal Reserve’s December projections show 70% confidence bands for overall inflation centered near 2 percent over the medium term, but with wide uncertainty in 2026–2028 (0.4–3.6% and 0.2–3.8%, respectively) [2].
1. What the recent numbers show — a clear midpoint, fuzzy edges
Published CPI data and private trackers in late 2025 point to inflation that has moderated from pandemic‑era peaks but remains above the Fed’s 2% target on some measures: an example headline figure is 3.0% year‑over‑year for the 12 months ending September 2025 [1] [3]. Official monthly CPI releases continue to drive the narrative but were disrupted in 2025 — the October report was canceled, delaying the sequence of monthly confirmations and increasing reliance on nowcasts and private compilations until the next release [1] [4].
2. Why monthly updates and “nowcasts” matter to readers and markets
Daily and weekly nowcasting tools — notably the Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcasts — have become a practical substitute when official data is delayed, producing high‑frequency estimates for CPI and PCE and flagging the range of possible outcomes as information arrives [5]. The Cleveland Fed explicitly notes that shocks to components it does not model can move actual inflation away from the nowcast, and it provides tools and commentary to show the narrowing uncertainty as new data appear [5].
3. Multiple measures — CPI vs. PCE and why the distinction changes the story
Journalists and policymakers follow both the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ PCE price index because they capture different baskets and weights. The BEA’s PCE series — used by the Fed for its 2% goal — is published on a different schedule and includes revisions; its releases (for example, in early December) have been subject to rescheduling in 2025, complicating comparisons [6]. The Cleveland Fed and others produce both CPI and PCE nowcasts because those methodological differences matter to policy and expectations [5] [6].
4. What central bankers say: a median view and wide uncertainty
At the December 2025 FOMC, participants’ central inflation projections clustered near 2%, but their fan charts produce much wider 70% confidence intervals beyond the current year — for example, 0.4% to 3.6% in the second and third projected years and 0.2% to 3.8% in the fourth year — signaling that the Fed sees the path to 2% as plausible but not assured [2]. Those intervals underscore that even with headline moderation, risks remain and policy must weigh upside and downside scenarios [2].
5. Sector detail and the narrative beneath the headline
Visualizations and category breakdowns from BLS‑derived datasets show that inflation’s persistence differs by component: food, energy and services move at different speeds and can pull headline rates up or down. Visual Capitalist’s compilation of BLS/USAFacts data highlights variation across categories through September 2025, demonstrating that the overall 3% figure masks divergent sector trends [7]. The Fed and regional banks monitor these subtleties — core measures that exclude food and energy often tell a different story than the all‑items CPI [3] [7].
6. How to read charts and tables you’ll find online
Public charts from aggregators (USInflationCalculator, CPI history pages and FRED series) typically display monthly CPI levels and 12‑month percent changes; annual rates can be read in December columns while monthly variation appears in time series plots [1] [3] [8]. Users should check whether a chart shows seasonally adjusted series, headline versus core metrics, and the index base period — all of which affect the visual impression of acceleration or deceleration [3] [4].
7. Where reporting can mislead and what the sources don’t say
Some summaries present a single headline rate as definitive; in 2025 that is incomplete because official releases were interrupted and because CPI and PCE differ in scope and timing [1] [6]. Available sources do not mention long‑term historical reinterpretations beyond the cited series, and they do not claim that one measure is an absolute “truth” — instead, BLS, BEA and Federal Reserve materials present multiple, complementary indicators for a fuller picture [4] [6] [2].
8. Bottom line for readers: follow the data and the uncertainty bands
Headline inflation is lower than the highs of prior years but remains meaningfully above 2% on some series; policymakers see a plausible return to 2% yet emphasize wide uncertainty in coming years [1] [2]. For up‑to‑the‑minute bearings when official reports are delayed, nowcasting tools from regional Federal Reserve banks and high‑frequency series on platforms like FRED provide real‑time context — but they also carry model risk and can diverge from later official revisions [5] [3].