What evidence in CME daily notices and warrant issuances indicates metal physically left COMEX vaults versus merely changing registered ownership?
Executive summary
COMEX/CME daily notices and the Metal Depository Statistics publish two distinct but related data streams: delivery notices show which futures contracts have been called for physical settlement and which clearing members are delivering or receiving, while the daily vault inventory reports record changes in registered and eligible stocks held in approved depositories [1] [2]. Taken together, a pattern of falling registered balances and explicit “out” movements in the inventory reports is the closest public evidence that metal has left CME vaults; however, delivery notices and warrant issuances alone can indicate only a change of ownership inside the system unless corroborated by a net outflow on the depository reports or other external shipping/receipts documentation [3] [4] [5].
1. Delivery notices show intent and ownership transfers, not by themselves proof of physical removal
Daily delivery notices published by CME identify contracts put into delivery and which clearing members stand for delivery or receipt, and analysts commonly use those notices to infer demand for physical metal and who the counterparties are [1] [2]. Multiple market commentaries note that delivery notices can represent buyers electing to take delivery and sellers issuing warrants, but that activity can reflect transfers of registered ownership inside COMEX vaults rather than metal leaving the exchange system entirely [4] [6]. Substack and industry pieces highlight situations where delivery notices surge while open interest and inventory metrics behave in ways inconsistent with wholesale physical removals, underscoring that notices by themselves are an ownership/contractual signal [7] [8].
2. The Metal Depository Statistics and daily inventory lines are the primary on-chain evidence of physical flows
CME’s Metal Depository Statistics and the daily warehouse/depository stocks report publish registered and eligible balances and record daily changes in “in” and “out” for each approved vault, and those net inventory movements are the clearest public evidence of metal physically leaving or entering COMEX vaults [1] [2]. Data aggregators and commentators therefore track registered balances closely because registered stock is the pool directly available for delivery against futures contracts, and a sustained decline in registered ounces—recorded in the daily inventory feed—is consistent with metal being removed or reclassified out of delivery-ready status [3] [9].
3. Patterns in combined data point to physical removal only when delivery notices align with net outflows
Independent analyses that attempt to prove “metal left the vault” look for coincident signals: elevated delivery notices paired with a decline in total COMEX inventory or explicit “out” entries in the depository statistics on the same or successive days [8] [6]. Journalists and analysts have used that composite approach to argue for significant physical flows in specific periods—citing converging delivery-ledger activity and inventory draws—as stronger evidence than notices alone [8] [9]. Conversely, episodes where delivery notices rise but total inventory increases or registered balances simply shift to “eligible” suggest transfers between ownership categories or inter-vault movements rather than extraction from the exchange system [7] [4].
4. Reporting caveats and counterarguments: warrants, cross-listed bars, and opaque provenance
Critics and forensic vault analysts caution that the CME/ICE vault reports can overstate usable inventory because of cross-listing, differing bar sizes and provenance, and because some issued warrants may reflect claims tied to other contracts or external facilities, muddying the line between an issued warrant and a physical shipment to an external end-user [5]. This limitation means that even when a warrant is issued or a delivery notice is posted, public records may not reveal whether the metal was couriered out, rewrapped and moved between COMEX-approved vaults, or re-designated from “eligible” to “registered” for internal delivery purposes [5] [4]. Reporting from market commentators therefore frequently couples CME notices with vault-level inventory time series to make the stronger claim that metal physically left COMEX vaults [8] [9].
Conclusion: what the evidence can and cannot prove from public CME documents
CME delivery notices and warrant issuance data reliably prove that contractual ownership of specific delivery lots changed hands and that deliveries were initiated; CME’s Metal Depository Statistics are the public ledger most capable of showing metal physically left COMEX vaults via net outflows and decreases in registered/total inventory [1] [2] [3]. Absent coincident net inventory outflows or external shipping/receipts disclosures, notices and warrants alone are ambiguous and can reflect intra-vault ownership changes or reclassifications rather than physical removal—an ambiguity highlighted by vault auditors and trade analysts [7] [4] [5]. The most defensible public claims of metal leaving COMEX therefore rest on aligned signals across delivery notices, depository inventory declines, and corroborative reporting rather than any single line in the daily notices feed [8] [6] [9].