How do COMEX delivery reports and ‘issues and stops’ reveal real-world silver delivery strain?
Executive summary
COMEX “Issues and Stops” delivery reports are a primary, line‑level window into who is standing for physical silver, who is delivering it, and how much metal is assigned as deliverable versus held as eligible inventory, and patterns in those reports over December–January show unusual near‑term delivery activity that market commentators interpret as stress in physical silver availability [1] [2] [3]. Independent analysts point to concentrated single‑day deliveries, roll‑backs into near‑term contracts, and large declines in Registered (deliverable) stocks as evidence of real‑world strain, though alternative readings and commercial incentives in some commentary warrant caution [4] [5] [6] [7].
1. What the COMEX “Issues and Stops” reports actually record
The daily Issues and Stops reports from CME list delivery notices, which contracts have been issued for physical delivery, the warehouses involved, and the movement between Registered (deliverable) and Eligible inventory categories—data that directly records which longs are taking delivery and which depositors are issuing metal into the delivery system [1] [2] [3].
2. Patterns that signal strain: concentrated deliveries and rollbacks
Commentators flagged January 7, 2026 as showing an unusual rush: a large number of January contracts stood for delivery, with reports that one bank (JP Morgan) issued the vast majority of those warrants to many stoppers—an atypical concentration that market analysts read as aggressive physical demand and potential localized depletion of Registered stocks [4]. Related trade data show March contracts rolling back into January/February to capture immediate delivery, a behavior traders adopt when near‑term physical availability is preferred over holding paper exposure—another practical sign of tightness [5] [8].
3. Inventory measures and backwardation: corroborating but not conclusive
Multiple observers point to steep declines in COMEX Registered inventories and episodes of backwardation (near‑month futures trading at a premium), both of which are consistent with physical scarcity because they indicate market participants are willing to pay to obtain immediate metal and Registered balances available for delivery have fallen substantially since 2020 [6] [7]. Those metrics corroborate delivery‑notice behavior but do not by themselves quantify how much metal has left vaults versus been reclassified internally (Registered ↔ Eligible), a nuance noted in exchange documentation and commentaries [2] [6].
4. How delivery report detail maps to real‑world consequences
When delivery notices increase and Registered stocks fall, it can mean metal is moving into industrial hands, export channels, or investor custody—real relocation that strains the pool available for COMEX settlement; if sustained, it can force operational choices such as cash settlement or higher margins, and has been flagged as a systemic risk by industry voices [9] [10]. Yet the COMEX record alone does not disclose the ultimate end‑use or geographic destination of metal, so the reports must be read together with warehouse flows and broader trade data to infer full real‑world impact [2] [6].
5. Reading the signals—and the spin
Newsletter pieces and bullish commentators treat delivery spikes and inventory drains as proof the paper market is unmoored from physical reality, sometimes amplifying single‑day anomalies into existential claims about COMEX failure while monetizing alarm through paid products [11] [4]. Conversely, some institutional analyses emphasize structural caveats—temporary arbitrage flows, reclassification between Registered/Eligible, and exchange margin policy changes—that can explain volatility without implying imminent collapse [6] [12]. Both perspectives use the same Issues and Stops dataset; the difference lies in what additional evidence is accepted as decisive.
6. Bottom line and reporting limits
The COMEX Issues and Stops reports are a direct, indispensable source showing who is taking delivery and how much metal is designated deliverable, and recent patterns—concentrated issuances, rollbacks to near‑term months, and depletion of Registered inventories—are consistent with genuine delivery strain in silver markets [1] [4] [5] [7]. However, the reports do not by themselves reveal final destinations or fully isolate temporary operational reallocations (Registered ↔ Eligible), so asserting a definitive systemic breakdown requires corroboration from warehouse flow data, physical trade/export records, and independent custodial reporting beyond the COMEX daily notices [2] [6].