How do COMEX 'registered' and 'eligible' inventories compare to global physical silver holdings (LBMA, ETFs) on a given date?
Executive summary
COMEX differentiates between "registered" (warranted, deliverable) and "eligible" (vaulted but not committed for delivery) silver; recent reporting places total COMEX stocks in the low hundreds of millions of ounces with registered metal a minority slice, and registered balances have seen steep multi‑year drawdowns [1] [2]. Comparing those COMEX buckets to global visible holdings (LBMA vault stocks and ETF inventories) is conceptually straightforward but practically limited by the public data supplied in these sources — LBMA and ETF numbers aren’t fully enumerated in the reporting provided, so precise ratios on a specific date cannot be computed here [3].
1. What "registered" and "eligible" mean and why it matters
COMEX’s bookkeeping treats registered metal as the ounces that carry delivery warrants and can immediately satisfy futures delivery, while eligible metal sits in approved vaults but lacks attached delivery warrants and therefore cannot be called for exchange delivery without conversion — a distinction explicitly explained in exchange commentary and market analysis [4]. The deliverability of registered stock makes it the scarce, market‑critical tranche when holders demand physical settlement; eligible metal functions as a buffer that can be converted into registered if vault custodians and owners choose to do so [4] [5].
2. How big COMEX inventories are, in available reporting
Several market summaries place total COMEX silver inventory in the hundreds of millions of ounces — one analysis cites roughly 440 million ounces total with only about 124 million ounces registered (under 30% deliverable) which frames the deliverable pool as a minority of total exchange holdings [1]. Other reports emphasize multi‑year declines in registered stocks — for example, registered inventories down over 70% from 2020 peaks in one piece that put late‑2023 registered at roughly 82 million ounces [2]. Independent delivery reports live on CME’s site but the datasets needed for a single‑date cross‑comparison require downloading the exchange’s detailed spreadsheets [3].
3. How COMEX compares to other global pools (LBMA, ETFs) — what the sources say and what they don’t
Reporting consistently asserts that LBMA and Western vault stocks have fallen sharply and that London/York/Zurich visible stocks are under strain, but the assembled sources do not provide a consolidated LBMA‑plus‑ETF total to yield a precise percentage comparison on a chosen date [2] [6]. Analysts point to collapsing LME/LBMA stocks and decade‑low Chinese inventories as evidence of global tightening, and they note that COMEX registered draws are part of a wider international drawdown [2] [7] [8]. However, none of the supplied articles publishes an audited snapshot adding COMEX registered + eligible vs LBMA vault totals + ETF holdings for an exact ratio on a specified calendar date, so any numeric comparison would require pulling live LBMA weekly data and ETF holdings (not included in these excerpts) alongside the CME warehouse sheet [3].
4. Scale context: how COMEX registered stacks up against production and paper claims
To give scale, one source summarizes global mine output at roughly 850 million ounces annually, which places COMEX registered balances (reported in some pieces at ~82–124 million oz) as a meaningful but not dominant portion of above‑ground flows — registered inventories can be consumed quickly relative to annual production when delivery demand spikes [9] [1]. The “paper” overlay is also highlighted: market commentary has quantified extremely high paper‑to‑physical claim ratios on COMEX historically (e.g., dozens of paper claims per registered ounce), underscoring why low registered stocks can translate into acute delivery stress even when total visible exchange metal appears substantial [4].
5. Alternative readings and limits of the narrative
Some analytical pieces argue that eligible metal conversions have ameliorated delivery strains and that elevated total inventories reduced open‑interest pressure at times, signaling that not all reporting of a “squeeze” is unanimous — in other words, metal moved in and out of COMEX as arbitrage and backwardation dynamics evolved [5] [10]. The material limitation here is the dataset: the CME publishes detailed weekly warehouse Excel reports [3], and LBMA and ETF holdings are tracked elsewhere, so a precise, date‑specific comparison requires assembling those live figures; the provided sources document trends and stress episodes but do not supply a single audited cross‑exchange snapshot.
Conclusion: what can confidently be said
COMEX registered inventories have been drawn down materially in recent years and constitute a smaller, deliverable fraction of COMEX’s total vault holdings (registered << total; examples: ~124m oz registered of ~440m oz total; registered down from 2020 peaks) and this has placed the exchange’s deliverable pool under stress relative to futures claims, while LBMA and other global pools have also been reported as depleted — but a precise numerical comparison of COMEX registered/eligible vs LBMA+ETF physical holdings on a single date cannot be produced from the supplied reporting alone and would require pulling the CME warehouse file and contemporaneous LBMA and ETF inventory disclosures [1] [2] [4] [3].