How does the deficit increase from 2017–2021 compare to prior presidencies (Obama, Bush)?

1. Bigger picture: different metrics give different answers

Analysts measure “how much a president increased the deficit” in multiple ways: the change in the annual deficit in the president’s final fiscal year, the cumulative deficits accrued while in office, the increase in total national debt during the term, or deficit as a share of GDP; results vary widely by choice of metric ^{[3] [4] [6]}. For example, one source counts Trump’s FY2021 budget deficit at $2.77 trillion ^[1], while other analyses focus on cumulative debt added under Obama or Bush over eight years ^{[3] [6]}.

2. 2017–2021: sharp rise tied to tax cuts and the pandemic

During 2017–2021 the fiscal picture shifted due to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, higher discretionary spending, and massive COVID-19 relief in 2020–21; pandemic response alone drove federal spending up about 50% between FY2019 and FY2021 and contributed to large deficits even as revenues rose ^{[5] [2]}. Trump’s final budget recorded a $2.77 trillion deficit at the end of FY2021 ^[1], and Treasury data note that revenue increased from roughly $3.5 trillion in 2019 to $4 trillion in 2021 while pandemic spending caused the spike ^[2].

3. Obama vs. Bush: crisis-era deficits and the role of inherited conditions

George W. Bush’s term saw large increases in debt through tax cuts, wars, and responses to downturns, with debt held by the public rising from about $3.34 trillion (Sept. 2001) to $6.37 trillion by end of 2008; the 2008 financial crisis then pushed deficits even higher entering Obama’s term ^[7]. The Obama administration then ran large stimulus and other measures—analyses report Obama added roughly $7.7–$8.6 trillion to national debt over two terms depending on methodology, and cumulative deficits over his eight years are often cited in the multi‑trillion range ^{[3] [6]}. Nonpartisan analysts emphasize that much of Obama’s early deficits flowed from crisis-era commitments and policies inherited from the Bush years ^[8].

4. How Trump’s 2017–21 increase compares to prior presidencies

Some reports frame Trump’s four-year increase as large in dollar terms—variously noting trillions added and a FY2021 deficit of $2.77 trillion—but comparisons must account for term length and exceptional events ^{[1] [5]}. For example, one compilation finds Trump’s presidency raised deficits by hundreds of percent under a percent‑change methodology ^[1], while other trackers show Trump added roughly $6.7–$8+ trillion to debt depending on whether FY2021 is fully counted and what items are included ^{[6] [9]}. Analysts also point out that pandemic relief accounts for the largest single driver of deficits in 2020–21, distorting direct comparisons with prior presidencies that did not experience a comparable global shock ^{[5] [2]}.

5. Methodological disputes and "hidden" drivers

Experts warn that “economy and technical revisions” (changes in revenue forecasts, economic performance, and accounting) can materially affect deficit totals: such revisions worsened Bush-era deficits by an estimated $3.3 trillion over a decade and produced large swings in other presidencies’ totals, complicating attribution solely to presidential policy ^[5]. Moreover, some sources emphasize that baseline projections left by previous administrations matter—Bush’s policies pushed budgets toward larger deficits before Obama took office ^[8].

6. What the numbers mean politically and practically

Citing raw dollar increases often benefits narratives that emphasize recent presidents’ responsibility for rising debt; focusing on percent‑of‑GDP or crisis-driven spending highlights structural and cyclical forces beyond a single administration’s control ^{[3] [2]}. Readers should expect competing interpretations: some outlets attribute most post‑2017 deficit growth to tax cuts and spending choices ^[1], while others highlight the COVID-19 emergency as the main driver in 2020–21 ^{[2] [5]}.

7. Bottom line and what’s not settled in these sources

Available sources agree that deficits rose markedly in 2017–2021, especially in FY2020–21 due to the pandemic, but they differ on ranking presidents by deficit impact because of divergent methods ^{[1] [3] [2]}. Sources do not uniformly provide a single, definitive ranking that isolates purely presidential policy effects from inherited baselines and economic shocks—so simple headlines claiming “largest increase” require careful scrutiny of the metric used ^{[8] [5]}.