How do deficits during the Trump and Biden administrations compare to past postwar presidencies?
Executive summary
Analysts at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) and several news outlets conclude that President Trump’s policies added roughly $8.4 trillion in new ten‑year borrowing versus about $4.3–$4.7 trillion attributed to President Biden over comparable budget windows, a near‑2x gap that narrows if COVID relief is excluded (Trump ~$4.8T vs Biden ~$2.2T) [1][2]. Treasury and CBO snapshots show large six‑month and annual deficits spanning both presidencies — e.g., a $1.307 trillion deficit in the first half of FY2025 and FY2024–25 monthly comparisons that show similar short‑term deficits under both presidents [3][4].
1. Two competing tallies: “twice as much” vs more nuance
Multiple independent summaries and the CRFB analysis are widely cited: CRFB reports $8.4 trillion of new ten‑year borrowing tied to Trump’s policies and about $4.3–$4.7 trillion to Biden’s actions, which media outlets framed as “Trump ran up debt twice as much as Biden” [1][5][2]. News organizations (Axios, The Hill) repeated that head‑line but also noted methodological choices — which years are counted, whether to include pandemic relief, and whether to use deficit windows or debt‑held‑by‑public changes — materially affect the ratio [5][2].
2. What the numbers actually measure — policy score vs. accounting reality
CRFB and related coverage typically measure “new ten‑year borrowing” from legislation and executive actions scored at passage; that aggregates future budget effects rather than the single fiscal‑year deficits on a president’s watch [1][6]. Other measures — Treasury’s debt‑by‑president or CBO’s annual deficits — can show different patterns because they reflect cash flows, interest costs, pandemic‑era spikes, and Treasury cash balances, which CRFB flags as inflating apparent growth under one administration [1][7].
3. The COVID distortion and the “exclude COVID” sensitivity
When you exclude COVID relief from the calculus, CRFB‑style tallies change sharply: Trump’s net new ten‑year borrowing falls from ~$8.4T to ~$4.8T and Biden’s from ~$4.3T to ~$2.2T, narrowing but not eliminating the gap [2]. That caveat is central because fiscal emergency spending in 2020–21 drove record deficits and debt growth, and how an analyst allocates that to a given president changes the headline conclusion [2][8].
4. Short‑term deficits and who “owns” them
Treasury data and fact‑checks show that short‑run deficits in overlapping fiscal years span both presidencies. For example, the first six months of FY2025 (Oct–Mar) recorded a $1.307 trillion deficit covering months under both Biden and Trump administrations [3]. PolitiFact’s month‑by‑month comparison found deficits from Jan–Sep 2024 (Biden) and Jan–Sep 2025 (Trump) were very close ($1.064T vs $1.079T), undermining simple claims that deficits have sharply fallen under one or the other [4].
5. Political spin and selective arithmetic
Both parties and the White House push narratives that fit political goals: the White House touted a plan (the “One Big Beautiful Bill”) claiming trillions in deficit reduction tied to Trump policy priorities, while House budget committee releases contested CRFB assumptions and highlighted interest‑cost add‑backs [9][10]. Media outlets and fact‑checkers warn that different baselines (current‑law, policy‑baseline, interest assumptions) and executive vs congressional roles produce different headline figures [10][11].
6. How this compares to past postwar presidencies — limits of available reporting
Available sources in the provided set do not give a systematic, single‑line comparison of Trump and Biden deficits against all postwar presidents measured by identical metrics (not found in current reporting). Some pieces place Trump‑era and Biden‑era debt‑to‑GDP changes in historical context (rising in the 2016–2024 window), but comprehensive postwar ranking by consistent metric is not present in these excerpts [12][1].
7. Bottom line for readers
Different methodologies yield different headlines: legislative scorecards over ten years (CRFB) show Trump’s policies added about twice the ten‑year borrowing of Biden’s; excluding pandemic effects narrows the gap [1][2]. Short‑run Treasury and CBO snapshots show both presidencies presided over large deficits, often in overlapping fiscal years, and do not support simple attributions of recent six‑month or single‑year declines solely to one president [3][4]. Readers should ask: which metric matters here — ten‑year policy costs, annual deficits, or debt‑held‑by‑the‑public — because each tells a different, factually supportable story [1][2].