Can you compare the federal deficits for the past 15 years
Executive summary
The past 15 fiscal years show a clear arc: deficits fell from the Great Recession peak into the mid-2010s, widened again after 2017 tax and spending changes, exploded during the COVID pandemic, and then retreated but remained historically large through FY2024–FY2026; official estimates put the FY2024 deficit near $1.9 trillion and ongoing timing adjustments make year-to-year comparisons noisy [1] [2] [3]. Across that span deficits measured as a share of GDP moved from crisis-era highs back toward lower levels and then rose again, leaving federal debt at historically high ratios and projections that deficits will persist absent policy changes [4] [5].
1. From crisis to consolidation: the early 2010s recovery
After peaking during the 2007–2009 recession—when the deficit briefly reached about 10 percent of GDP—deficits narrowed as the economy recovered, with the deficit-to-GDP ratio steadily falling into the mid‑2010s and reaching levels around the low single digits by 2014, reflecting both improving revenues and slower growth in cyclically sensitive outlays [1] [6].
2. Policy shifts and renewed increases: late 2010s
Beginning in 2018, a combination of tax cuts and sustained discretionary spending pushed deficits up again even before the pandemic, reversing part of the post‑recession consolidation and widening the primary gap between noninterest spending and revenue that analysts say averaged roughly 3 percent of GDP in recent projections [5] [2].
3. The COVID shock and the largest peacetime deficits
The pandemic produced the single largest peacetime deficits in modern history as emergency spending and revenue drops produced multi‑trillion dollar shortfalls in FY2020 and FY2021; this episode dwarfed the modest post‑2010 improvements and is the principal driver of the recent elevated debt trajectory [7] [5].
4. The post‑pandemic pullback—but still large by historical standards
Deficits declined from the COVID peaks as emergency programs wound down and revenue rebounded, yet results for FY2024 remained large—about $1.9 trillion in CBO estimates and roughly $1.8–1.9 trillion in other reconciled tallies—keeping deficits near historically high peacetime levels and debt near record shares of GDP [2] [8] [5].
5. Recent months and measurement caveats: timing effects and short‑term variability
Comparisons across the most recent fiscal years are complicated by one‑off timing shifts in when federal payments fall around the calendar year boundary; analysts at Treasury and budget trackers warn those shifts inflated outlays in some Decembers and depressed them in others, meaning that cumulative-year figures for FY2025–FY2026 require adjustment before a clean apples‑to‑apples comparison [3] [9].
6. Where the numbers point: projections and fiscal sustainability
Nonpartisan forecasters project persistent deficits: CBO and independent researchers estimate near‑term deficits around $1.9–2.0 trillion and project debt held by the public to rise to well over 100 percent of GDP in coming decades absent policy changes, driven by rising interest costs and mandatory program growth—an outcome analysts call an unprecedented peacetime imbalance [10] [2] [5].
7. Competing explanations and political stakes
There is a long‑running debate about drivers: some emphasize cyclical factors and emergency policy responses (as explanations for the COVID and Great Recession spikes), while others point to structural policy choices—tax changes, entitlement growth, and discretionary spending—as the root of sustained primary deficits; sources from CBO, NBER and other trackers highlight both channels and note that political choices over taxes and spending will determine whether deficits shrink or persist [6] [5] [10].
8. Bottom line for the past 15 years
Measured in levels, the past decade‑and‑a‑half moved from crisis‑era deficits to a mid‑decade decline, then to renewed growth culminating in the pandemic surge and a partial retreat to multi‑trillion‑dollar shortfalls—figures that keep the United States on a path toward much higher debt unless policymakers enact offsetting revenue increases or spending reductions [1] [2] [5].