What is the current inflation percentage

1. The headline number: 2.7 percent and what produced it

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ December CPI report — summarized by multiple outlets and data aggregators — put the all-items 12‑month increase at 2.7 percent, reflecting a monthly gain of 0.3 percent in December that pushed the year‑over‑year pace to where it stands now ^{[2] [3] [1]}. That headline figure aggregates many categories, and reporters note that shelter, food and energy components behaved differently beneath the surface ^{[5] [3]}.

2. Core inflation and underlying measures: a slightly different picture

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, was reported at about 2.6 percent year‑over‑year in December, a touch softer than some forecasts but still signaling persistent underlying price pressure according to Reuters’ coverage of the BLS release ^[6]. Analysts and central bankers frequently prefer PCE-based measures for policymaking; several sources warn that PCE readings and other measures could show a slightly different trend than headline CPI ^{[6] [7]}.

3. Why some analysts say inflation may be understated or distorted

Several commentators and outlets cautioned that headline CPI can mask pressures in goods where consumers actually spend, and that government reporting quirks — including revisions and data delays — could distort short-term comparisons; the Cleveland Fed and AP noted potential distortions and the usefulness of nowcasts to fill timing gaps ^{[7] [8]}. Reuters and others argued the “headline” number may be softer than the real experience for many households, particularly where tariff-driven cost passthroughs and local price swings matter ^{[6] [8]}.

4. Tariffs, policy and the near-term outlook: risks to the 2.7 percent reading

Multiple investment banks and market outlets flagged tariffs and fiscal moves as upside risks that could push inflation higher in 2026, with some forecasts projecting inflation to tick back toward the mid‑2 percent range or higher if tariff costs are passed through ^{[9] [10]}. Morningstar and J.P. Morgan analyses specifically warned tariffs and a weakening dollar could sustain above‑target inflation into 2026 even as other forces push downward ^{[10] [9]}.

5. Conflicting transforms: alternative estimates and why they differ

Non‑government trackers and calculators can show different annual rates: one inflation calculator derived a 2.03 percent annual change for 2026 using a specific CPI series update and methodology, illustrating how calendar choices and series selection change headline rates ^[11]. Such differences underscore that “current inflation” can vary depending on which monthly comparison, index (CPI vs. PCE), seasonal adjustment, or time window is used ^{[1] [7]}.

6. What to watch next: the February release and potential revisions

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish January 2026 CPI data on February 11, 2026, and routinely revises recent months when seasonal factors or benchmarking changes are introduced — meaning the 2.7 percent December figure is the best official snapshot today but subject to future minor revisions ^{[4] [12]}. Economists and Fed observers will be watching January and PCE updates closely for signs that the disinflation trend continues or stalls amid policy shifts and tariff effects ^{[5] [6]}.

7. Bottom line for the present moment

Based on the latest official BLS release and coverage of that release, the current confirmed U.S. headline inflation rate is 2.7 percent year‑over‑year for the 12 months ending December 2025, with core CPI near 2.6 percent and important caveats about data timing, measurement differences (CPI vs. PCE), and tariff‑related upside risks ahead ^{[2] [3] [6] [10]}. January 2026 data will update the picture on February 11, 2026 ^[4].