How high is inflation in the US
Executive summary
Headline U.S. inflation — as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — was about 3.0% on a 12‑month basis through September 2025, with core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) also near 3.0% for that month (BLS/summary and aggregators) [1] [2]. Multiple public and private trackers (BLS, FRED, USAFacts, TradingEconomics, Visual Capitalist, Treasury) show inflation materially below the 2022 peaks but still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target as of September 2025 [1] [3] [4].
1. Where the “about 3%” number comes from — official CPI readings
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI‑U) increased 0.3% in September 2025 and that the 12‑month (year‑over‑year) headline inflation rate was roughly 3.0% through that month; this is the official series that most headlines cite [1]. Federal databases like the St. Louis Fed’s FRED host the CPIAUCSL series used to compute these year‑over‑year percent changes, and they show the same downward trend from the highs of 2022 toward the mid‑single digits by 2025 [3].
2. Private trackers and aggregators confirm the same level
Commercial data sites and aggregators — TradingEconomics, USInflationCalculator, USAFacts and others — report the same September 2025 snapshot: headline CPI around 3.0% year‑over‑year and core readings close to that level as well. TradingEconomics notes inflation rose to 3.0% in September from 2.9% in August 2025, and USAFacts summarizes the current rate “about 3%” based on BLS data [5] [6] [2].
3. What’s driving the gap with the Fed’s 2% target
Even with headline inflation down from the 2022 peak (9.1% in 2022 per historical tables), services — particularly housing services and some food categories — remain sticky and keep CPI above 2%. The Treasury’s statement shows rent of housing inflation was 3.7% year‑over‑year through September 2025, and the administration noted CPI remained above the Fed’s 2% target in the third quarter [4]. Visual Capitalist’s breakdown of categories shows food and home services pushing gains while tech and apparel costs fell — a mixed picture across sectors [7].
4. Monthly dynamics matter: readings are not static
The headline 3.0% figure is a 12‑month comparison; monthly movements still matter for the Fed’s policy. The BLS reported a 0.3% monthly rise in September 2025 after 0.4% in August — moves that can alter the annual rate going forward [1]. Regional variation and seasonality also influence short‑term readings; FRED and the BLS caution that seasonally adjusted and unadjusted series can differ, and analysts often look at core measures and monthly momentum to judge persistence [3].
5. How forecasters and central bankers view it
Federal Reserve officials and private economists treat 3% headline and core inflation as “above target” and data dependent for policy decisions. Banks and research shops (for example, RBC and regional Fed research) highlight that while inflation has slowed materially, stickier service‑sector inflation and resilient labor markets argue for caution in easing policy; RBC’s commentary frames a view of gradual rate cuts only after sustained progress [8] [9].
6. Alternate measures and nowcasts add nuance
Beyond headline CPI, the Fed monitors PCE inflation and core PCE, and regional Fed “nowcasts” (like Cleveland Fed methods) use high‑frequency inputs — gasoline, oil, weekly indicators — to estimate near‑real‑time inflation before official releases. Those models can confirm the BLS trend or flag upside risks if energy or goods prices move unexpectedly [10].
7. What limitations and disagreements to note
Sources agree broadly on the September 2025 snapshot (~3.0%), but differences exist in emphasis: some analysts stress the decline from 2022 highs and see easing momentum (Investopedia historical context), while Treasurys and private forecasters point to persistent services inflation and labor market resilience that could keep inflation above the Fed’s 2% target for longer [11] [4] [8]. Available sources do not mention data beyond September 2025 in detail; for October/November readings, traders and the public must wait for subsequent BLS releases and nowcasts [6] [1].
Bottom line
As of the most recent official BLS release summarized across government and private trackers, U.S. headline CPI inflation stood at about 3.0% year‑over‑year through September 2025, with core inflation roughly similar; this is a meaningful improvement from 2022 but remains above the Fed’s 2% goal, leaving policy makers and markets focused on incoming monthly data for signs of durable disinflation [1] [2] [4].