What is the current size of the U.S. national debt and how has it changed this year?
Executive summary
The United States’ gross national debt stood at $38.43 trillion as of January 7, 2026, an increase of $2.25 trillion compared with the same date a year earlier, a rise the Joint Economic Committee quantified as averaging roughly $8.03 billion per day over the past year [1] [2]. That headline figure is reported daily by Treasury data and tracked by partisan and nonpartisan outlets alike, and the composition of the debt and rising interest costs are shaping both near‑term budget pressures and longer‑term projections [3] [4].
1. How big is the debt right now, and who is reporting it?
The Joint Economic Committee (Republican members) published a Monthly Debt Update reporting total gross national debt of $38.43 trillion as of January 7, 2026, and that document breaks the total into intragovernmental holdings and debt held by the public while flagging average rates of daily increase [1] [2] [5]. The U.S. Treasury’s “Debt to the Penny” and Fiscal Data portals provide the underlying daily totals and definitions used to compile those headline numbers, and the Treasury dataset was current through late January 2026 in publicly available downloads [3] [4].
2. How has the debt changed this year?
Year‑over‑year growth is substantial: the JEC reports a $2.25 trillion increase from Jan 7, 2025 to Jan 7, 2026, which its analysis translates into about $6,624 per person and $16,719 per household based on population and household assumptions in the report [1] [2]. The committee also calculated an average growth rate that implies the nation was adding roughly $8.03 billion to the gross debt each day over the prior 12 months [1].
3. What’s driving the change and why it matters now?
Rising interest costs are a key driver: multiple reporting outlets and budget trackers note interest payments are growing quickly and are now the fastest‑growing federal expense, with analysts projecting annual net interest approaching or exceeding $1 trillion in 2026, which amplifies deficits even if primary spending stabilizes [6] [7] [8] [9]. Nonpartisan budget analysts emphasize that an aging population, health‑care costs, and legislative changes (including major tax/spending packages) have also pushed debt higher, and some forecasts place debt near or above 100% of GDP under current trends [10] [11].
4. Short‑term arithmetic vs. long‑term trajectory
Near‑term arithmetic is stark and visible — trackers estimated the U.S. could reach $39 trillion within weeks to months if recent average growth rates persist, with JEC suggesting a $39 trillion milestone around early April 2026 under three‑year average growth assumptions [1] [12]. Longer‑term work from research institutions and budget modelers warns that stabilizing debt relative to GDP would require substantial policy changes (for example, immediate and permanent fiscal adjustments on the order of several percent of GDP per NBER summaries) if current laws and trends continue [13].
5. Notes on sources, framing and uncertainty
The headline numbers come from Treasury accounting and are reported daily, but how they are framed varies: the JEC releases emphasize raw totals and per‑household equivalents and are produced by Republican committee staff, which can inform the political framing of the data [1] [2]. Nonpartisan sources like the Treasury Fiscal Data and independent budget organizations provide the underlying series and context for interest, composition, and historical comparisons [4] [3] [10]. Projections differ by model and assumptions about growth, interest rates, and laws, so short‑term totals are precise while forward paths are inherently uncertain [11] [13].