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What were the main drivers of federal debt growth under Trump (tax cuts, spending, COVID-19 relief) in 2017–2020?
Executive summary
Federal debt rose sharply during 2017–2020, climbing roughly $6.7–$7.8 trillion depending on the measure used, with most reporting that the jump through fiscal year 2020 was driven largely by the coronavirus recession and related relief plus earlier tax cuts and increased discretionary spending [1] [2] [3]. Different analysts apportion the drivers differently: the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates about $3.6 trillion from COVID actions, $2.5 trillion from the 2017 tax law, and $2.3 trillion from other spending increases among roughly $8.4 trillion of added legislation and executive actions [2].
1. Rapid growth in the totals — how big and when
Debt measured at the end of fiscal year 2020 was about $26.9 trillion, up $6.7 trillion from the start of Trump’s term by that fiscal-year accounting; some other counts put the increase during his time in office as roughly $7.8 trillion depending on which dates and figures are compared [1] [4]. The pandemic produced a large one‑time spike in 2020 that moved year‑end debt markedly higher [1] [4].
2. COVID-19 relief: the single largest immediate shock
Multiple outlets and budget analysts say COVID relief and pandemic-related executive actions were the biggest immediate cause of borrowing in 2020. CRFB’s breakdown credits about $3.6 trillion of the roughly $8.4 trillion of added law/executive action costs to COVID relief, including the CARES Act and other emergency measures [2]. Newsweek and other contemporaneous reporting also emphasize the pandemic stimulus as the main driver of 2020 borrowing [4] [5].
3. The 2017 Tax Cuts: a multi‑year structural contributor
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 is consistently cited as a major non‑pandemic contributor to debt growth. CRFB attributes roughly $2.5 trillion of added debt to tax cut laws in its decade‑horizon accounting; think tanks and business press note the TCJA’s ten‑year cost and its role in enlarging deficits before COVID [2] [6]. Newsweek and other analysts say the TCJA was the main driver of debt increases during Trump’s first three years, when the economy was not in recession [7].
4. Increased discretionary spending and budget deals
Beyond tax cuts and COVID relief, bipartisan budget agreements and higher discretionary spending under Trump are part of the story. CRFB counts about $2.3 trillion from spending increases [2]. The Bipartisan Budget Acts of 2018 and 2019—by loosening caps—are specifically noted as adding roughly $2.1 trillion of borrowing in CRFB’s accounting [2]. The Manhattan Institute paper likewise points to substantial spending and legislative costs signed during the term [6].
5. Measurement choices matter — ten‑year costs vs. year‑by‑year borrowing
Analysts use different methods: some count the ten‑year score of laws and executive actions (CRFB’s ~$8.4 trillion), others sum gross debt outstanding changes during presidential years (the $6.7–$7.8 trillion figures), and some emphasize fiscal‑year accounting or debt held by the public versus total gross debt [2] [1] [3]. These methodological differences explain much of the variation in headline numbers and why different groups emphasize different drivers [2] [3].
6. Context and alternative viewpoints
Conservative and some free‑market analysts stress that pandemic relief was largely unavoidable and mostly temporary, arguing it should be viewed separately from structural fiscal choices like the tax law and entitlements [6]. By contrast, progressive critics and independent budget watchers underscore that tax cuts plus rising discretionary spending had already widened deficits during a growth period before COVID, making the fiscal position more vulnerable when the pandemic hit [7] [1]. The AP and other fact‑checks warn against blaming a single actor or party, noting long‑term trends and prior administrations’ contributions to rising debt levels [3].
7. Remaining limitations and what reporting does not say
Available sources do not provide a single universally accepted, narrow percentage split of debt growth for exactly 2017–2020 that isolates every policy action’s net effect on the headline gross debt number by date; instead, they offer plausible decompositions (ten‑year cost estimates, fiscal‑year debt changes, and narrative attributions) that lead to different emphases [2] [1] [3]. Some sources also note technical factors—like Treasury cash balances and intragovernmental holdings—that affect short‑term debt measures but are not always broken out in simple driver tallies [2] [8].
8. Bottom line for readers
The clear, cross‑source conclusion is that three channels combined explain most of the rise: emergency COVID‑era relief (the largest single shock in 2020), the 2017 tax cuts (a major multi‑year factor), and higher discretionary spending and budget deals [2] [1] [7]. Exactly how much each “caused” the debt to grow depends on whether you use ten‑year legislative cost scores or year‑to‑year debt totals, and analysts disagree on that methodological choice [2] [3].