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How have egg prices changed since Donald Trump got into office in 2025?
Executive Summary
Since the premise that “Donald Trump got into office in 2025” is factually misplaced for most mainstream timelines, it is more precise to say that egg prices swung sharply through 2025 as avian influenza outbreaks and supply shocks drove large wholesale moves and volatile retail responses. Data through late 2025 show episodes of record-high retail averages near $4.95 per dozen and dramatic monthly wholesale declines of double digits, followed by sharp rebounds tied to new HPAI waves; commentators and officials have offered competing narratives about whether prices are “coming down” or still far above pre-2025 levels [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Dramatic swings: From record highs to a historic monthly drop that fed political claims
The most striking single data point reported in mid‑2025 was a 12.7% drop in egg prices in one month, the largest monthly decline since 1984, which outlets used to assess claims that prices were falling [2]. That same reporting noted retail averages of $3.30 per dozen in a snapshot and emphasized that wholesale prices fell much faster than store prices, creating a lag before consumer costs adjusted [2]. Other contemporaneous USDA and market reports, however, described record retail averages of about $4.95 per dozen earlier in the year and USDA forecasts of a potential 41% increase in 2025 before the mid‑year easing, driven by extensive bird flu losses [1] [5]. The net effect is volatile month‑to‑month changes, not a monotonic decline, and the large monthly drop alone does not signify a sustained return to pre‑crisis levels [2] [1].
2. Supply shocks: Bird flu drove much of the price movement and complicated comparisons
Multiple sources attribute the 2025 price volatility to successive waves of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) that led to mass culling of layers—figures cited include tens to hundreds of millions of birds slaughtered at different points—which both pushed prices up earlier and reduced inventories that later amplified upward moves when new outbreaks occurred [1] [5] [3]. Reports note that USDA interventions and proposed biosecurity spending aimed to stabilize the sector, but such measures have multi‑month lag times before changing retail outcomes [1]. The presence of ongoing outbreaks through October and November 2025 meant that supply remained fragile, so temporary wholesale declines could reverse quickly when new flock losses were announced [6] [3].
3. Wholesale vs. retail: Why store prices lag and complicate political narratives
Analysts emphasize the wide gap between wholesale price swings and what consumers pay at the register, with wholesale indices sometimes moving half as fast or twice as fast as retail, and grocers passing on costs unevenly as they manage inventories and margins [2] [6]. Reports note wholesale prices fell sharply in some months—helping feed claims of price relief—while retail averages remained substantially above year‑ago or pre‑crisis levels because stores worked to recoup losses and because cartoning, distribution, and retail contracts blunt immediate pass‑through [2]. This structural lag means political statements about “egg prices falling” can rely on selective snapshots of wholesale data rather than sustained retail trends [2] [4].
4. Conflicting snapshots: Different datasets and dates give different pictures
Different official series and market snapshots tell different stories: one USDA‑tracked retail average reached about $4.95 per dozen in early 2025, while BLS and other CPI series show month‑to‑month declines by September but with annual comparisons still elevated; a November 4, 2025 USDA market snapshot cited a wholesale quote of $1.75 per dozen on that day, reflecting intramonth volatility and differing market measures [1] [4] [3]. Because sources use different units—wholesale loose-egg indexes, cartoned retail averages, CPI indexes—and different cutoffs, comparing “since Trump took office in 2025” becomes a moving‑target exercise dependent on which series and exact start/end dates are used [6] [7].
5. Bottom line for the claim: The question’s premise and the measured reality
Two clear conclusions emerge from the available reporting: first, the factual premise that Donald Trump “got into office in 2025” is not uniformly supported in these market analyses and introduces ambiguity into any before/after comparison; second, egg prices in 2025 experienced extreme volatility driven by HPAI, with record highs early in the year, USDA forecasts of large percentage increases, and later sharp monthly declines—yet retail prices often remained well above pre‑crisis levels [1] [5] [2] [4]. Any political claim that “egg prices have fallen since Trump took office in 2025” must therefore be qualified: it can be true for specific short windows or wholesale series, but it is misleading as a blanket statement about sustained retail price relief [2] [4].