How did energy and food prices influence annual inflation under the Biden administration from 2021–2025?
Executive summary
Energy and food price swings were central drivers of the surge in inflation that peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and then helped shape its decline through 2024–25; energy and food were repeatedly cited by major outlets and agencies as primary contributors to high consumer-price readings [1] [2]. Analysts and political actors disagree on causes: some point to stimulus and fiscal policy under Biden, while others cite international shocks (Ukraine war, supply chains) and energy-price volatility as decisive [3] [1] [2].
1. How big the inflation surge was and when energy and food mattered most
Inflation rose sharply after 2021, reaching a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022; that episode coincided with steep increases in energy and many food components and prompted a prolonged Fed tightening campaign [1]. Government and research summaries show food prices climbed strongly in 2022 (food-at-home up double digits in some measures) and then moderated: food-price growth slowed to 5.8% in 2023 and to 2.3% in 2024 as supply and other pressures eased, per USDA Economic Research Service [2]. Energy prices moved in larger, faster swings — their volatility amplified headline inflation when oil and gas spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022 and again affected readings in subsequent months [1] [2].
2. What caused the food-price jump: global shocks, supply chains and disease
USDA and other analysts list multiple, non‑exclusive drivers of food inflation: weather, trade shifts, plant and animal disease (notably avian influenza), higher wholesale costs and global disruptions such as the Russia–Ukraine war — all of which raised retail food costs in 2021–2023 [2]. Independent fact‑checks and economists also stress the pandemic’s supply‑demand mismatch as a key structural element behind commodity and grocery price increases, not only domestic policy choices [4].
3. Energy’s outsized role and the politics around it
Energy’s price volatility translated quickly into consumer pain at the pump and into higher costs for transportation, fertilizer and food production; multiple Republican communications and oversight documents highlight energy‑price increases as a central driver of higher food and overall CPI under Biden [5] [6]. Mainstream reporting and analysis, however, attribute major energy shocks to global events (for example the war in Ukraine) and to the broader post‑pandemic rebalancing that pushed commodity prices up in 2021–22 [1] [2].
4. Monetary policy and the pace of disinflation
The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate increases were the principal instrument used to slow demand and cool broad inflation after 2022; headline CPI trended down through 2023 and into 2024 as the Fed tightened [1]. Energy and food are more responsive to supply shocks than to interest‑rate moves, so while tighter policy helped lower many core services and goods price pressures, energy and food swings sometimes produced temporary rebounds or slowed the pace of disinflation [2] [1].
5. Partisan frames: stimulus, regulation, tariffs and blame
Political actors present competing narratives. Republicans and conservative groups attribute much of the price rise to expansive fiscal spending and what they call “energy‑hostile” regulation under Biden, arguing these raised energy and therefore food costs [6] [5]. Other analysts and fact‑checkers emphasize the role of pandemic disruptions and international shocks, and caution that attributing the surge mainly to Biden’s policies overstates the influence of presidential policy versus global and monetary factors [4] [1].
6. How the numbers evolved by the end of the period
By early 2025 the year‑over‑year CPI had fallen from its 2022 peak to readings around 3.0% in January 2025 (noted in retrospective analyses of Biden’s term), reflecting broad cooling though still above the Fed’s 2% goal; food and energy contributions had diminished but remained politically salient [7] [1]. USDA forecasting and other agencies reported continued moderation in food‑price growth into 2024, tied to easing wholesale pressures and lower energy costs compared with the peak years [2].
7. Limits of the available reporting and open questions
Available sources document correlations — energy and food price surges coincided with peak inflation — but they differ on causal weight: some stress fiscal stimulus and regulation [6] [5], while others point to global shocks and supply‑side problems [4] [2]. Current reporting in these sources does not provide a single, quantified decomposition of how many inflation percentage points energy and food each added to annual CPI across every year 2021–2025; that granular attribution is not found in the current reporting cited here (not found in current reporting).
8. What to watch going forward
Monitor commodity markets, geopolitical developments that affect oil and grain flows, and USDA and BLS monthly releases — those datasets will show whether food and energy volatility resurfaces and whether core inflation dynamics (services, wages, rents) take over again as the dominant drivers [2] [1]. Expect political narratives to continue using food and energy prices as shorthand for broader economic fortunes, even when structural and global factors play the larger role [5] [4].