If average cost per child is $18,600 and there are 3.9 million illegal children, what is the estimated cost for taxpayers
Executive summary
If an average cost of $18,600 per child is applied to a population of 3.9 million children, the straight-line estimated taxpayer cost is $72.54 billion; that arithmetic follows directly from multiplying the two figures. The figure must be read as a simple product, not a validated budgetary estimate, because neither the $18,600 per-child number nor the 3.9 million child count are documented in the supplied reporting and different studies use very different per-person and total-cost methodologies (FAIR/AEI report a per-person figure of $8,776 and a total around $150.7 billion) [1] [2] [3].
1. The arithmetic: how $18,600 times 3.9 million becomes $72.54 billion
Multiplying $18,600 by 3,900,000 yields $72,540,000,000 — seventy-two billion, five hundred forty million dollars — which is the direct answer to the posed calculation using the two inputs provided in the question; this is a deterministic math result and does not depend on policy definitions or program accounting (no external source required for the multiplication itself).
2. How that figure compares to published cost studies and widely cited estimates
Published advocacy and research reports produce very different per-person and aggregate estimates: FAIR’s 2023/2024 study, echoed in reporting by Newsweek and cited by AEI, estimates a per-person annual fiscal cost of $8,776 and places the total cost of illegal immigration at roughly $150.7 billion per year (FAIR), a total derived from adding K–12 education, health, public benefits and other components [1] [2] [3]. The $72.54 billion result from the simple multiplication is therefore about half the FAIR headline total and more than eight times the FAIR per-person figure if one compares per-child to FAIR’s per-person number [1] [2].
3. Why simple multiplications can mislead: methodological shoals and contested inputs
Cost estimates depend on who is counted (undocumented adults only, U.S.-born children of undocumented parents, or all dependents), which programs are included (K–12, emergency Medicaid, EITC/CTC interactions, incarceration, capital costs for schools), and how taxes paid by undocumented households are counted as offsets; GAO and other federal analyses have long warned that national net-cost estimates vary widely because of these definitional choices [4] [5]. The supplied reports come from organizations with explicit policy perspectives — FAIR and AEI emphasize fiscal burdens and advocate policy changes — and that creates an implicit agenda to highlight costs rather than net fiscal impacts or economic contributions, so readers should treat single-number headlines cautiously [1] [3].
4. Alternative framings and counter-evidence in the record
Other expert analyses emphasize that undocumented immigrants also pay taxes and contribute to the economy; for example, the American Immigration Council reports substantial tax contributions and spending power from undocumented households, which would offset portions of gross cost tallies [6]. The Congressional Budget Office and academic research model long-term effects, eligibility transitions, and economywide impacts that change annual fiscal profiles over time; those analyses typically produce different totals and show rising mandatory program costs as some in the population gain eligibility, complicating any one-year-per-child multiplication [7] [8].
5. Reporting limitations and the responsible interpretation of the $72.54 billion figure
The $72.54 billion result is the correct arithmetic product of the user-supplied inputs, but the supplied reporting does not corroborate the specific $18,600 per-child figure or the 3.9 million child count; instead, the materials include alternative per-person metrics and full-aggregate estimates that differ substantially [1] [2] [3]. Therefore the $72.54 billion should be presented as “what the cost would be if those two inputs are accepted,” not as a validated estimate of current taxpayer burden; responsible analysis requires specifying definitions, program inclusions/exclusions, and netting of taxes paid — items that vary across the sources [4] [5].
6. Bottom line
Using the two numbers supplied — $18,600 per child and 3.9 million children — produces an estimated taxpayer cost of $72.54 billion; however, established reports and federal analyses use different population counts, per-person measures, and accounting rules, producing totals that range widely, so the multiplication result should be treated as a conditional arithmetic outcome rather than a definitive fiscal judgment [1] [2] [7].