What evidence exists for large physical silver movements out of COMEX vaults since September 2025?
Executive summary
Since September 2025 there is multiple, corroborating reporting of large registered outflows and delivery claims on COMEX—most dramatically a claim that over 47.6 million ounces were requested for delivery in the first four trading days of December 2025, representing roughly 60% of COMEX’s then-registered silver stock [1] [2]. At the same time market commentators and data aggregators document sustained drawdowns of “Registered” inventories and signs of delivery stress (backwardation, tightening EFPs), but primary-source CME vault withdrawal data must be consulted to pin down exactly how much metal physically left COMEX vaults [3] [4] [5].
1. What the published numbers say: registered claims and rapid drawdowns
Several outlets report a rapid spike in delivery claims and sharp falls in COMEX registered silver inventories beginning in September and accelerating into late 2025, including an often-cited figure that over 47.6 million ounces were claimed for delivery in early December—a quantity described as more than 60% of COMEX’s registered silver inventory at that time [1] [2]. Industry commentary and blog coverage likewise describe a “massive draw down” in Registered supplies since September and characterize December deliveries as historically elevated [3] [4] [6].
2. Market indicators that signal physical demand, not just paper moves
Price structure and spreads also show signs consistent with physical tightness: multiple analysts and articles report episodes of backwardation in silver futures and a shrinking EFP spread—conditions that typically coincide with increased demand to convert futures into deliverable metal and with vault outflows [4] [7]. Commentators link these pricing signals to investor demand for deliverable metal and to withdrawals from other hubs (Shanghai), arguing the market has been drawing down above‑ground stocks globally [8] [9].
3. Reported vault outflows and cross‑exchange flows (Shanghai ↔ COMEX narratives)
Several reports document large outflows from Shanghai vaults and rapid net movements affecting COMEX inventories, with numbers such as a 257‑ton weekly outflow in Shanghai and multi‑tens‑of‑millions‑of‑ounces declines cited for U.S. vaults over multi‑day stretches [9] [8]. Analysts cite an “arbitrage loop” and physical shipments tied to regional demand dynamics, implying that supply has physically shifted between hubs rather than remaining purely a paper accounting change [9].
4. Contradictions and important caveat: registered vs. physically removed
A consistent caveat appears in the sources: when metal is “delivered” on COMEX that can mean Registered ownership moved between account holders, not necessarily that bars were removed from vaults and shipped [3]. Several commentators explicitly note that the critical evidence is metal actually leaving COMEX vaults—data that requires inspection of CME delivery and warehouse withdrawal reports [3] [5]. Some coverage asserts physical shipments occurred, but those pieces often rely on secondary reporting or aggregated interpretations rather than line‑by‑line CME warehouse movement logs [1] [9].
5. How convincing is the evidence overall?
Taken together the evidence is strong that there has been an unusually large flow of claims, account reallocations, and registered outflows on COMEX since September 2025—supported by contemporaneous pricing anomalies (backwardation), EFP tightening, and parallel drains in other exchange warehouses [1] [4] [8] [7]. However, asserting the exact quantity of physical ounces that physically exited COMEX vault doors depends on parsing CME delivery reports and vault withdrawal spreadsheets (which exist) rather than relying solely on journalistic summaries and analyst commentary; the sources reviewed repeatedly flag this distinction [3] [5].
6. What to check next to resolve remaining uncertainty
To move from strong circumstantial evidence to definitive accounting, consulting CME Group’s official delivery and silver stock/warehouse files is necessary: those primary reports list daily registered stock levels, delivery notices, and reported withdrawals by warehouse [5] [10]. Until those line‑level CME data are inspected and reconciled with the public reporting cited above, the responsible conclusion is that very large registered outflows and delivery claims occurred and market signals point to material physical tightness—but the precise count of ounces physically leaving COMEX vaults since September 2025 requires CME withdrawal records for confirmation [1] [3] [5].